The Atlantic Division standings tell a story of two franchises moving in different directions as the Buffalo Sabres host the Toronto Maple Leafs this Saturday. Buffalo has climbed to the top of the division with 86 points while Toronto sits at the bottom with 67 points. This local rivalry usually brings high energy but the current landscape suggests a lopsided affair. The Maple Leafs have been struggling through a painful stretch where they have lost most of their recent games. But they managed to get a surprise win against the Pacific-leading Anaheim Ducks. In contrast the Sabres were riding an 8 game winning streak (before the Capitals put an end to that), and look like a team no one wants to face in the playoffs. With the postseason approaching the stakes are high for a Buffalo group looking to keep its lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Plenty more picks over at our NHL page.
Game Snapshot
Opponents: Toronto Maple Leafs @ Buffalo Sabres
Date & Time: March 14, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, New York
Broadcast: ABC, ESPN Plus
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +1.5 at -160 | +145 | Over 6.5 at -115 |
| Buffalo Sabres | -1.5 at +135 | -170 | Under 6.5 at -105 |
Key Storylines Toronto vs Buffalo
The most important news before this game is the health of Toronto captain Auston Matthews. During a game against the Anaheim Ducks on March 12 Matthews was hit in the knee by Radko Gudas. He limped off the ice and his participation in this game is unlikely. This is a massive hit for a team already missing Chris Tanev who is out for the season after surgery. Without Matthews the Toronto scoring attack loses its best player during a time when he was already in a 44 day goal drought. The leadership of Morgan Rielly will be vital as the group tries to stay competitive without their top center.
Buffalo is having a historic season. Tage Thompson is leading the way with 34 goals and 36 assists for 70 points in 66 games. The Sabres have found a winning formula under Lindy Ruff who has brought the team back to the top of the league. The goaltending of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Alex Lyon has been consistent and they share the responsibilites (31 and 26 games played), with Colten Ellis stepping in for 13 games. Buffalo leads the division and wants to keep home ice advantage for the playoffs. Their power play is scoring often and their defense is deep enough to handle smaller injuries to players like Josh Norris and Jordan Greenway.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Buffalo has won 6 of the last 10 games against Toronto.
- The Sabres are 40-19-6 this season and have covered the spread in 60% of their home games.
- Toronto has a losing road record with only 11 wins in 31 games.
- The over has hit in 5 of the last 7 games for Toronto because of defensive issues.
- Buffalo was on an 8 game winning streak before the game vs Capitals on Mar 12.
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Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | Over 1.5 Points at +120 |
| William Nylander | Over 3.5 Shots on Goal at -110 |
| JJ Peterka | Anytime Goal Scorer at +150 |
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres Pick & Model Projection
Score Projection: Toronto Maple Leafs 2 – Buffalo Sabres 5
Pick: Buffalo Sabres Moneyline -170
Confidence: 5 out of 5
Win Probability: Toronto Maple Leafs 32%, Buffalo Sabres 68%
The facts point for a Buffalo victory in this spot. The Maple Leafs are missing their best player and lack confidence after a string of losses. Toronto has given up 233 goals this year which is among the worst marks in the league. Facing a Buffalo offense that scores 3.4 goals per game will be very hard for the visitors. The loss of Chris Tanev on the blue line makes it harder for Toronto to defend the front of the net or stop the cycle. Buffalo is playing for the top seed and will play hard against a rival that is clearly struggling.
Expect the Sabres to lead early and maintain control. Tage Thompson is playing at an elite level and will find space against a weak Toronto defense. Even if Toronto tries hard the lack of scoring depth without Matthews will show as the game continues. Betting on the Buffalo moneyline is the smart choice but the puck line also looks good for a multi goal win. The Sabres are better in every part of the game right now and they should reach 9 wins in a row in front of their home fans.
