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Oklahoma State Cowboys vs TCU Horned Frogs Pick - 2/12/2025

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction – 3/11/2026

Updated March 11, 2026 • 4 min read

The Big 12 Tournament continues Wednesday night in Kansas City with a compelling second-round contest between Oklahoma State and TCU. Oklahoma State arrives after an impressive opening-round victory, while TCU enters as the sixth seed and one of the conference’s hottest teams. With postseason stakes rising and the NCAA Tournament picture still unsettled for many teams, this Oklahoma State vs TCU contest carries significant importance for both programs.

Our Oklahoma State vs TCU Pick

Pick:

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Confidence: 3 out of 5

Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs TCU Horned Frogs
  • Date & Time: Wednesday, March 11, 9:30 PM ET
  • Venue: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Missouri
  • Broadcast: ESPNU

Key Storylines

One of the biggest factors entering this game is rest versus rhythm. Oklahoma State played Tuesday night and delivered a strong offensive performance to eliminate Colorado. That result may give the Cowboys confidence, but it also means they must turn around quickly to face a rested TCU team.

Another storyline centers on recent form. TCU enters this matchup having won five consecutive games to close the regular season. During that stretch, the Horned Frogs defeated Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Arizona State, and West Virginia while allowing fewer than 70 points in four of those contests.

Oklahoma State, however, has proven capable of producing explosive offensive outings. The Cowboys average more than 83 points per game this season and have cleared 90 points multiple times in recent weeks.

Key Players

TCU Horned Frogs

  • David Punch averages 13.6 points and 6.6 rebounds per game while shooting 50.8% from the field. His interior scoring and rim protection are critical for the Horned Frogs, and he also contributes nearly 2 blocks per game.
  • Xavier Edmonds averages 12.8 points and 6.6 rebounds and has been one of the team’s most consistent performers throughout conference play. His ability to rebound and score inside helps balance TCU’s offense.
  • Brock Harding leads the team with 5.9 assists per game and orchestrates the offense. His decision making is key against Oklahoma State’s aggressive pace.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

  • Anthony Roy leads the Cowboys with 17.0 points per game while shooting 42.9% from the field and 84.9% from the free throw line. Roy scored 24 points in the Cowboys’ win over Colorado and remains their primary scoring option.
  • Parsa Fallah averages 6 rebounds per game and anchors the frontcourt with a strong interior presence.
  • Kanye Clary averages 4.7 assists per game and plays an important role in facilitating Oklahoma State’s fast-paced offense.

Stat Comparison

StatOklahoma StateTCU
Points per game84.277.9
Points allowed per game82.571.4
Team Field Goal %46%45%
Rebounds per game38.136.0
Assists per game14.815.8

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

  • TCU is 2-0 against Oklahoma State going into this conference tournament game.
  • TCU enters this game riding a five-game winning streak.
  • Oklahoma State has won three of its last five games.
  • TCU is 18-13 against the spread this season.
  • Oklahoma State has a 15-17 record against the spread this year.

Oklahoma State vs TCU Model Projection

Score Projection:

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Win Probability:

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Final Thoughts

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Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.

Affiliate Disclosure ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
Tags: Oklahoma State Cowboys, TCU Horned Frogs
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