The MAAC championship game brings together two programs that have steadily climbed through the conference standings this season. Siena enters Tuesday night riding a wave of confidence after a strong conference tournament run, while Merrimack arrives as the league’s top seed and one of the most consistent teams in the conference. With both teams playing their best basketball in early March, this Siena vs Merrimack game carries high stakes, including the conference’s automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament.
Our Siena vs Merrimack Pick
Pick:
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Siena Saints @ Merrimack Warriors
- Date & Time: Tuesday, March 10, 9:00 PM ET
- Venue: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
Siena arrives in the championship game after winning 4 of its last 5 contests, including a decisive semifinal victory over Fairfield that highlighted the scoring ability of its backcourt. The Saints have played well down the stretch and have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Their defense has also tightened recently, with several low-scoring games contributing to a streak of unders.
Merrimack has been the most consistent team in the MAAC this season. The Warriors hold a 23-10 overall record and dominated conference play with a 17-3 mark. They have won 11 of their last 12 games and have already defeated Siena this season in a competitive 79-72 contest. Merrimack’s defensive style, including its zone schemes and pressure on the perimeter, has caused problems for many opponents throughout the season. But they nearly stumbled in the semifinals, escaping with a one-point win over Marist.
Of course, the coaching situation for the Saints is a storyline going into this game. Gerry McNamara was a legend as a player at Syracuse University and taking Siena to the NCAA Tournament in just his second season there would be an impressive feat given how bad they were just a couple of seasons ago.
Key Players
Merrimack Warriors
- Kevair Kennedy leads the team with 18.6 points per game while shooting 46.6% from the field. He also contributes 4.2 assists per game, making him the focal point of the Warriors’ offense.
- Ernest Shelton is averaging over 15 points per game for the Warriors and he is a key piece, taking some of the scoring burden away from Kennedy.
Siena Saints
- Gavin Doty is Siena’s leading scorer with 17.5 points per game while shooting 46.3% from the field and 85.0% from the free-throw line. His scoring ability has been vital throughout the season.
- Justice Shoats serves as Siena’s primary facilitator with 4.4 assists per game and provides steady leadership in the backcourt.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Siena | Merrimack |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 70.7 | 69.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 66.0 | 66.5 |
| Team Field Goal % | 46% | 42% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 33.9 | 28.8 |
| Assists Per Game | 13.4 | 12.5 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Merrimack is 2-0 against Siena during the 2025-26 season and 3-0 against the Saints all-time.
- Siena is 4-1 against the spread in its last 5 games.
- Merrimack is 1-4 against the spread in its last 5 games.
- Siena has seen the total go under in 5 straight games.
- Merrimack has won 11 of its last 12 games overall.
Siena vs Merrimack Model Projection
Score Projection:
Win Probability:
Final Thoughts
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