The Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs and the USC Upstate Spartans meet on Wednesday night in the opening round of the Big South Conference Tournament. Gardner-Webb comes into this tournament after a very challenging regular season, while USC Upstate looks to extend its season into the quarterfinals. The Spartans come into this Gardner-Webb vs USC Upstate game as the clear favorites, but upsets are a part of March and the Bulldogs will try to pull one off here.
Our Gardner-Webb vs USC Upstate Pick
Pick: USC Upstate -10.5
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs @ USC Upstate Spartans
- Date & Time: Wednesday, March 4, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Freedom Hall Civic Center, Johnson City, Tennessee
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
- USC Upstate enters this first-round matchup as the eighth seed against ninth seed Gardner-Webb in the Big South Tournament. The Spartans finished with a better record (13-18 overall, 5-11 Big South) and beat Gardner-Webb in their most recent matchup 71-61, while Gardner-Webb won the first meeting 67-65 earlier in the season. Both teams split the season series.
- Gardner-Webb struggled through the regular season, winning just 3 games. Their defensive issues are substantial as they allow over 86 points per game, nearly 13 more than USC Upstate allows per outing.
- The Spartans hope to carry momentum from their February home win over Gardner-Webb into this tournament game. But Gardner-Webb has proven that this game is far from a sure thing.
Key Players
USC Upstate Spartans
- Karmani Gregory is the team’s top scoring gun at roughly 15.8 points per game, also contributing assists and veteran leadership.
- Jafeth Martinez chips in with over five rebounds per game and secondary scoring that helps stabilize USC Upstate’s interior play.
Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs
- Jacob Hogarth leads Gardner-Webb at around 11.0 points per game and 7.0 rebounds, providing reliable scoring and a presence on the glass.
- Colin Hawkins leads Gardner-Webb with 2.1 assists per game. That speaks to the ball movement and finishing issues that the Runnin’ Bulldogs have experienced throughout this year.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | USC Upstate |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 68.5 | 74.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 86.3 | 73.9 |
| Team Field Goal % | 43% | 44% |
| Rebounds per game | 30.5 | 37.0 |
| Assists per game | 10.3 | 12.7 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The season series is split with USC Upstate winning the recent late-February meeting and Gardner-Webb claiming the first contest.
- Gardner-Webb is 13-14-1 against the spread this season.
- USC Upstate is 13-15 against the spread this year.
Gardner-Webb vs USC Upstate Model Projection
Score Projection: Gardner-Webb 65 – USC Upstate 81
Win Probability: Gardner-Webb 15%, USC Upstate 85%
Final Thoughts
USC Upstate appears poised to handle Gardner-Webb fairly comfortably in this Big South Tournament opener. The statistical advantages in scoring, defense, and rebounding favor the Spartans. Gardner-Webb’s limited offensive firepower and porous defense make an upset unlikely. USC Upstate to win and cover is my best bet for this matchup down South.
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