Tuesday night’s Atlantic Coast Conference clash between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Virginia Cavaliers is one of the last chances for these teams to impress before the ACC tournament. Virginia enters with a dominant 25–4 record and one of the most consistent seasons in recent program history, while Wake Forest is 15–14 overall and trying to prove itself against stronger competition. Before tip-off from Charlottesville, you will find my Wake Forest vs Virginia prediction below.
Our Wake Forest vs Virginia Pick
Pick: Virginia Cavaliers -14.5
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Virginia Cavaliers
- Date & Time: Tuesday, March 3, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, Virginia
- Broadcast: ACC Network
Key Storylines
- Virginia has excelled at home this season with a 14–1 record and ranks near the top of the ACC in scoring offense.
- Wake Forest’s season has been marked by streaky play, but they enter this game off an 88–83 win against Syracuse that saw Myles Colvin put up 32 points.
- Virginia can no longer win the ACC regular-season title after losing to Duke on Saturday, but they can still lock up the second seed in the upcoming conference tourney with a strong final week of the regular season, starting with this game.
Key Players
Virginia Cavaliers
- Thijs De Ridder: Leading scorer for Virginia at about 16.0 points per game with 6.2 rebounds, he provides consistent shotmaking and a presence on the glass for the Cavaliers.
- Dallin Hall: Contributes around 4.2 assists per game, serving as a secondary playmaker who helps Virginia control tempo and distribute the ball effectively to other scorers.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
- Juke Harris: Wake Forest’s leading scorer at around 21.4 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, Harris is crucial for their offensive success and makes Wake competitive most nights.
- Myles Colvin: Came off the bench in Wake’s most recent game to score 32 points, igniting Wake Forest’s offense and demonstrating their ability to erupt offensively on any given night.
- Nate Calmese: Provides scoring and playmaking, averaging nearly five assists while maintaining scoring efficiency at critical moments.
Stat Comparison
| Statistic | Wake Forest | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 79.1 | 81.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 77.1 | 68.1 |
| Team Field Goal % | 45% | 46% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 32.9 | 40.9 |
| Assists Per Game | 14.4 | 16.7 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Virginia has been dominant in this series historically, winning 12 of the last 14 matchups and playing exceptionally well at home against the Demon Deacons.
- Virginia is 14-13-2 against the spread this season.
- Wake Forest is 12-16-1 against the spread going into Tuesday night.
Wake Forest vs Virginia Model Projection
Score Projection: Wake Forest 74 – Virginia 88
Win Probability: Wake Forest 14%, Virginia 86%
Final Thoughts
In a matchup where Virginia’s statistical advantages, home court advantage, and consistent offensive output give them an advantage over Wake Forest, the Cavaliers are the logical pick to cover the number here. While Wake Forest has playmakers capable of keeping it competitive early, Virginia’s depth and ability to control rebounding and possessions should see them pull away in the second half. I’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this ACC game.
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