Ryan Gandra vs Jose Medina Prediction & Preview – 2/28/2026

This Saturday UFC returns to Arena CDMX in Mexico City with a stacked card that kicks off early and delivers action across divisions. One of the most interesting matchups on the preliminary card features middleweight prospect Ryan Gandra facing veteran Jose Daniel Medina in a bout where the Brazilian is one of the heaviest favorites on the card. Will Gandra live up to that billing on Saturday? Find out what we think below and get our Gandra vs Medina prediction before Fight Night begins.

Our Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina Pick

Pick:

Confidence: 4 out of 5

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina Preview

Ryan Gandra, a Brazilian fighter with an imposing 8-1 professional record, has made waves with his high-volume striking and finishing ability. His UFC debut came after a first-round knockout win on Dana White’s Contender Series, and since then, he’s showcased elite offensive output and strong defensive metrics. According to the most recent UFC statistics, Gandra lands over 11 significant strikes per minute at a 51% clip while absorbing just over 2 strikes per minute. His takedown defense is perfect, though he does not appear to incorporate wrestling into his own strategy, instead choosing to keep fights standing, where he has a clear advantage.

Medina arrives with a respectable 11-6 record and the benefit of experience against a variety of foes, but his UFC numbers paint a more challenging picture. He lands just over 2 significant strikes per minute with a 36% accuracy rate and absorbs just above 5 significant strikes per minute. His striking defense is below average, and his takedown defense has been exploited in prior bouts. While the Bolivian veteran has durability and experience in pressure situations, he lacks the technical tools to match Gandra’s offensive explosion.

Medina comes into this fight on a four-fight losing streak, losing his Contender Series fight before dropping three straight in UFC proper. At this point, the big question for him going into this fight is why he’s still a part of this roster and if he can do anything to prove that he belongs against an up-and-comer in his division.

Physically, the fighters are nearly identical in reach and height, but Gandra’s youth and aggressive style give him an edge. Gandra’s pace could overwhelm Medina early, and Medina’s documented struggles in striking defense could prove costly. The stylistic matchup clearly favors Gandra’s strengths while exposing Medina’s weaknesses.

Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina Prediction

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Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.

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