USA vs Canada Olympic Men’s Hockey Gold Medal Game Odds & Prediction – 2/22/2026

The United States and Canada will face off in the gold medal game of the Olympic men’s ice hockey tournament on Sunday in Milan. These have been the two best teams in this tournament by some margin, but only one of them will come away with the gold, while the other will be disappointed with silver. Before the puck is dropped in his massive matchup on the ice, I’ve broken down all the action, and you can find my USA vs Canada prediction below.

Our USA vs Canada Pick

Pick:

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: United States vs Canada
• Date & Time: Sunday, January 22, 2026, 8:10 AM ET
• Venue: Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena
• Broadcast: NBC/Peacock

USA vs Canada Odds

• Moneyline: USA -107, Canada +113
• Puckline: USA +1.5 (-280), Canada -1.5 (+210)
• Total: Over 5.5 (+134), Under 5.5 (-164)

Key Storylines

The semifinal round for these two hockey powerhouses could not have looked more different. Canada fell behind by two goals against Finland in the first semifinal of the day and scrambled back in the final 20 minutes to win, including a game-winning goal in the final minute of the third period by Nathan MacKinnon. But the Canadians were far from convincing early in that game and they can’t afford to fall behind against a stronger United States squad.

As for Team USA, they dominated Slovakia in the second semifinal, outscoring Slovakia 5-0 over the first two periods in a game that ultimately finished 6-2 in favor of the Americans. Five different Americans scored goals in that game, with Jack Hughes scoring twice to lead the US into the gold medal game. Team USA will see more resistance from the defense of Canada, but the Americans will be confident heading into this game based on how they have played in this tournament so far.

This will be the second straight major final that these countries have played against each other over the last couple of years. Canada got the better of the USA in the final of last year’s Four Nations Face-Off, setting the stage for this gold medal game with NHL players involved. The margins in this game are expected to be razor-thin once again, and it could come down to which team avoids committing senseless penalties and making mistakes that open up scoring chances for their opposition.

USA vs Canada Model Projection

Score Projection:

Win Probability:

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.

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