2026 Olympic Nordic Combined Large Hill Prediction & Preview

The men’s Nordic Combined Individual Large Hill/10 km event at the 2026 Winter Olympics remains highly anticipated for fans of skiing and ski jumping. Staying true to the Nordic combined format, this event pairs a ski jumping session on the large hill at Predazzo with a 10 km cross‑country race, using performance on the jump to determine staggered start times for the ski portion. Norway’s Jens Luraas Oftebro won gold in the nordic combined normal hill. Can he go 2/2 in these Winter Olympics? Continue reading to get my prediction for this event.

Olympic Nordic Combined Large Hill Betting Odds

Here are the current odds for the Nordic Combined Individual Large Hill/10 km:

• Johannes Lamparter (Austria): +125
• Jens Luraas Oftebro (Norway): +175
• Julian Schmid (Germany): +600
• Vinzenz Geiger (Germany): +650
• Stefan Rettenegger (AUT): +1000
• Ilkka Herola (Finland): +1400
• All Others: +2000 or more

Olympic Nordic Combined Large Hill Major Storylines

One major narrative surrounding this event is the momentum gained from the normal hill results. Oftebro’s dramatic victory in the normal hill/10 km competition showcased his tactical cross‑country strength, overcoming an early deficit after the jump to clinch gold. This result highlights the importance of conditioning and pacing in the ski segment and suggests that even if an athlete doesn’t dominate the large hill jump, they can still contend with a strong cross‑country race.

Another key storyline is how the absence of some legendary names has opened opportunities for rising stars. Previous seasons saw dominant performances from athletes like Jarl Magnus Riiber, who took gold in the large hill/10 km at the FIS Nordic World Ski Championships in 2025, but such veterans are no longer as prominent at these Olympic Games. Riiber’s past results remain a benchmark for performance, but this year’s field includes a long list of contenders aiming to capitalize on his absence.

National representation trends are also noteworthy. Austria and Germany have consistently fielded strong Nordic combined teams with depth in both jumping and skiing, pushing Norway – historically the dominant nation in this discipline – to adapt its strategies. The large hill event tends to reward outstanding jumpers, and Austria’s Lamparter and Germany’s Schmid and Geiger have shown formidable form through the winter season. In contrast, Oftebro’s strength in the cross‑country phase poses a tactical threat if he finds himself within reach after the jump segment.

Olympic Nordic Combined Large Hill Medal Contenders

1. Johannes Lamparter (Austria) – As the current favorite, Lamparter brings strong World Cup and championship consistency and is often within striking distance after both jumps and skiing.
2. Julian Schmid (Germany) – Priced well for bettors who value a combination of powerful jumps and steady skiing; Schmid could make a decisive move in the cross‑country leg.
3. Vinzenz Geiger (Germany) – With experience and podium potential, Geiger remains a serious threat, especially if jumping conditions favour distance over style.
4. Jens Luraas Oftebro (Norway) – The reigning normal hill Olympic champion, Oftebro’s cross‑country prowess gives him a legitimate shot if he can limit time losses off the large hill.
5. Ilkka Herola (Finland) – A dark‑horse value option whose balanced skill set could yield a top‑five finish and even podium pressure with optimal conditions.

Nordic Combined Large Hill Betting Prediction

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Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.