2026 Olympic Men’s Ski Jumping Normal Hill Preview & Prediction

The men’s normal hill individual ski jumping event at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano Cortina could end up being a family affair. Scheduled for February 9 at the Predazzo Ski Jumping Stadium, this event will host the best jumpers on a hill that demands precision, courage, and consistency. Just like in the women’s normal hill competition, a member of the Prevc family from Slovenia is the favorite to win. Will we see a Prevc sweep? Continue reading to get my Olympic men’s individual ski jumping normal hill prediction.

Olympic Men’s Ski Jumping Normal Hill Betting Odds

Below are the latest betting odds for the men’s normal hill individual event at the 2026 Olympics. These odds are subject to change leading up to the event.

• Domen Prevc (Slovenia) +115
• Stephan Embacher (Austria) +900
• Ren Nikaido (Japan) +900
• Ryoyu Kobayashi (Japan) +1200
• Jan Hoerl (Austria) +1200
• Philipp Raimund (Germany) +1200
• Stefan Kraft (Austria) +1400
• Anze Lanisek (Slovenia) +1600
• Daniel Tschofenig (Austria) +1800
• Kristoffer Eriksen Sundal (Norway) +2000
• Marius Lindvik (Norway) +2500
• All Others: +5000 or more

Olympic Men’s Normal Hill Major Storylines

One of the main stories coming out of the qualification round was Norway’s strong performance, with Marius Lindvik topping the leaderboard in qualification ahead of the final event. Lindvik’s jump of 100.5m earned him 116.7 points and indicated he is in excellent shape coming into the medal rounds. While qualification results do not always translate into final success, they can offer insight into current rhythm and comfort on the hill. Behind Lindvik, teammate Robert Johansson also posted a strong qualification result, showcasing Norway’s depth in the event.

An intriguing subplot involves Slovenia’s Domen Prevc, who enters as the betting favorite. Prevc’s consistency on the World Cup circuit and strong performances in recent competitions have elevated him to the top of the betting markets. He holds the shortest price of all competitors, a sign that oddsmakers view him as the most likely to ascend the podium. His form has been bolstered by a season where he has often placed highly against elite competition.

Prevc is a member of something of a royal family in individual ski jumping. His sister is Nika Prevc, who enters the Milano-Cortina games as the odds-on favorite to win the women’s individual normal hill event. We could see one family take both of the individual golds in this discipline of ski jumping and that would be an incredible sight.

Japan’s veteran Ryoyu Kobayashi remains a highly respected contender. The 2022 Olympic champion on large hill terrain and a seasoned performer on the World Cup circuit, Kobayashi brings experience and a proven ability to handle the pressure of major championships. His odds are similar to those of Austria’s Jan Hoerl, another jumper with podium credentials in World Cup events, making both athletes key players in this competition.

Adding deeper intrigue is the backdrop of recent equipment controversies affecting the ski jumping community. Rumors and speculation around suit and body measurement manipulation have been dismissed by regulators, but they have created chatter that some athletes may face increased scrutiny on competition day. While these stories have not directly impacted competition entries, they have added additional focus to an event already heavy with stakes.

Olympic Men’s Normal Hill Individual Medal Contenders

1. Domen Prevc – Slovenia’s standout jumper is the favorite for a reason, showcasing consistent jumps that have kept him near the top of major competitions over the season.
2. Jan Hoerl – The Austrian’s odds reflect his strong World Cup performances. Hoerl is reliable in varying wind conditions and could easily break into the top three.
3. Ryoyu Kobayashi – A former Olympic gold medalist whose experience and technical skill make him a perennial threat whenever medals are on the line.
4. Anze Lanisek – Slightly longer odds, but Lanisek has the ability to challenge for gold if conditions align and he finds his best form.
5. Stefan Kraft – Another Austrian with a track record of top finishes. He has the potential to outperform his market price in this event.

Men’s Normal Hill Betting Prediction

Pick:

Confidence: 4 out of 5

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.