San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks Preview & Prediction – 2/5/2026

San Antonio heads north for a divisional showdown in Dallas in a game that matters for both sides. The Spurs are pushing near the top of the Western Conference standings, while the Mavericks are fighting to steady the ship after a rough stretch and an active trade deadline. Before this Texas two-step takes place in Dallas, you can find my Spurs vs Mavericks prediction right here.

Our Spurs vs Mavericks Pick

Pick:

Confidence: 1/5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks
• Date & Time: Thursday, February 5, 2026, 8:30 PM ET
• Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
• Broadcast: NBA League Pass

Key Storylines

• Victor Wembanyama is authoring another elite defensive month and he helped the Spurs to get a double-digit win over a short-handed Oklahoma City Thunder team last night. This will be the second game of a back-to-back for the Spurs, which could cause problems even if they have a talent advantage over the Mavericks.
• Cooper Flagg has been great for Dallas, with recent 30-plus nights including 36 against Boston and 34 at Houston. He’s carrying a heavy usage burden while veterans cycle in and out of the lineup. His usage could increase in the short-term after the Mavs made some trade deadline deals, including one that sent Anthony Davis to the Washington Wizards.
• Mavericks availability watch: P.J. Washington has been in concussion protocols and missed the Celtics game, while several of the newly-acquired Mavs are questionable after their respective trades, including Khris Middleton. Daniel Gafford has played through an ankle knock. Bettors should keep their eyes peeled for updates throughout Thursday.
• The Spurs’ health picture is steadier. Stephon Castle has dealt with leg tightness at times, but San Antonio’s core minutes around Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, and key reserves have been largely intact.

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

• Past meetings: Spurs dominated the season opener in Dallas, 125-92, behind Wembanyama’s 40 and 15. The clubs will meet again in San Antonio on February 7.
• The Spurs are 26-23-2 against the spread going into this matchup.
• Dallas is 23-27 against the spread entering Thursday night.
• The under is 32-19 in Spurs games this season, the highest under percentage in the NBA.
• The under is 29-21 in games involving the Mavs this year.

Spurs vs Mavericks Model Projection

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.

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