The Vegas Golden Knights head to Scotiabank Arena to face the Toronto Maple Leafs on Friday night. These two clubs met earlier this month in a thrilling overtime game that ended in a 6-5 victory for Vegas. Toronto gets a chance to even the season series on their home rink in this contest. Before the puck drops in Canada on Friday night, I’ve got everything you need below to make an informed Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs prediction.
Our Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Pick
Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Vegas Golden Knights vs Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date & Time: Friday, January 23, 2026, 7:00 PM
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Recent form
When these teams met on January 15, the Golden Knights rallied from a multi-goal deficit to win 6-5 in overtime, with Jack Eichel scoring the winner and Mitch Marner recording two assists against his former club. Vegas is playing well lately, but this is the second game of a back-to-back for the Golden Knights after their game in Boston on Thursday.
Toronto has earned at least a point in three of its last four games. But they have lost three of those last four games, dropping a couple of overtime games on opposite ends of a split in a pair of regulation contests. The Leafs have a rest advantage going into this game and they will try to take advantage of that to get a win here.
Goaltending
Toronto’s Joseph Woll has been solid with a save percentage north of .910 this season, and Dennis Hildeby is a capable backup. Vegas’ goaltending situation is going to be more fluid going into this game, as they have some choices to make on the second leg of a back-to-back. How Vegas approaches this contest from a goaltending standpoint could make all the difference in this matchup.
Key skaters
Offensively, Vegas relies heavily on Jack Eichel, who tallied multiple points in the last meeting and remains a threat on the power play. Mitch Marner is also going to be a key figure in this game as he faces a Toronto team that he spent so much time with previously. Toronto’s Auston Matthews continues to lead his club in scoring, and Morgan Rielly has chipped in with transitions from the defensive zone. William Nylander is out on IR, greatly impacting what the Leafs are capable of offensively.
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Golden Knights are 1-0 against the Maple Leafs this season.
- The first game between these teams featured 11 total goals and went over the total.
- The Maple Leafs have gone over the total in 29 of their first 50 games.
- Vegas has also gone over the total in the vast majority of their games this season.
Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Model Projection
Score Projection: Toronto 4 – Vegas 3
Win Probability: Toronto 52%, Vegas 48%
Final Thoughts
We should see another high-scoring game between these two teams. I think that the Leafs will avenge their loss to the Knights earlier in the month. Expect the rest advantage for the Maple Leafs to make the difference here and for Toronto to defeat the road-weary Golden Knights.
