The Golden State Warriors will square off with the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night in an important game for both Western Conference teams. The Warriors find themselves in the top 10 in the Western Conference, but recently suffered a key injury that they will need to overcome. They will take on a Mavericks team that is outside the top 10 out West, but is starting to find some form in the middle of the season. Here, I break down this matchup down and bring you my Warriors vs Mavericks prediction in the NBA.
Our Warriors vs Mavericks Pick
| Pick: | |
| Confidence: | 3/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
- Date & Time: Thursday, January 22, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Key Storylines
Golden State enters this game amid a period of adjustment after losing veteran swingman Jimmy Butler for the remainder of the season due to a torn ACL suffered in their recent victory over Miami. Butler had been averaging around 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists before his injury, making his absence a major blow to the Warriors’ rotation.
His loss forces others into bigger roles, while also introducing questions about Golden State’s defense and overall balance without Butler’s playmaking and toughness on both ends of the court. Meanwhile, Seth Curry remains sidelined with a glute injury, further limiting perimeter shooting options for the Warriors outside of Steph Curry.
Dallas has also faced injury adversity, with prized rookie Cooper Flagg recently exiting a game with a left ankle sprain. Flagg has been a major contributor for the Mavericks this season and his status for Thursday’s game is uncertain, which could significantly impact Dallas’ offensive potency. Additional Mavericks players such as Daniel Gafford, Dante Exum, and P.J. Washington have also been dealing with injuries, while Anthony Davis is also out. The absence of these contributors has forced others into expanded roles and puts pressure on the Mavericks’ depth.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Warriors won the first meeting between these teams this season by a score of 126-116 in San Francisco.
- Golden State is 22-23 against the spread so far this season.
- The Mavs are 20-24 against the spread going into this matchup.
- The under is 25-19 in Mavericks games so far this year.
- Golden State is 27-18 to the over through 45 games.
Warriors vs Mavericks Model Projection
Final Thoughts
