The Oregon Ducks and Indiana Hoosiers will meet at the Peach Bowl in the semifinals of this year’s College Football Playoff. These Big Ten teams were incredible in the quarterfinals, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Now they will face off with a spot in the national championship game on the line. Will the Hoosiers go 2-0 against the Ducks this year, or will Oregon avenge their regular-season loss to Indiana? Here, I break down this contest on the gridiron and give you my Oregon vs Indiana prediction.
Our Oregon vs Indiana Pick
| Pick: | |
| Confidence: | 3/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Oregon Ducks vs Indiana Hoosiers
- Date & Time: Friday, January 9, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
- Broadcast: ESPN
Oregon vs Indiana Odds
- Spread: Indiana -4.5
- Moneyline: Indiana -200, Oregon +164
- Total: 47.5
Key Storylines
The defenses on both sides of this contest will try to earn the spotlight once again after dominant performances in the quarterfinals. Oregon pitched a shutout in the Orange Bowl against Texas Tech, while Indiana shut down Alabama in the Rose Bowl Game. A similarly impressive performance will be needed on defense to win this game and earn a spot in the national title game on January 19.
These teams played once already this season, with Indiana winning 30-20 in Eugene on October 11. Both quarterbacks struggled relative to their usual standard in that matchup, with both starters failing to reach 225 passing yards. Oregon only generated one offensive touchdown in that contest and their offense will be tested again, while they will not have home-field advantage to rely on.
Third-down defense could be another deciding factor in this contest. The Hoosiers only allowed Oregon to convert on 3/14 third-down attempts in their first meeting this season. They also held Alabama to just one conversion on their first eight third-down attempts in the quarterfinals and getting off the field will be of vital importance for Indiana again.
Quarterback Play
Dante Moore had 234 passing yards, no touchdowns, and an interception in Oregon’s win in the quarterfinals. But Moore didn’t need to be great to lead the Ducks to a win, thanks to the play of the Oregon defense. Moore will need to be great for Oregon to win this game and it will be interesting to see if he can reach that level on this stage.
Indiana didn’t ask Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza to do much against Alabama. But Mendoza was incredibly efficient in that game, completing 13 of his first 15 pass attempts beefore the game got out of hand in the fourth quarter. He looked great in his first career CFP game and Mendoza will try to build on that performance in the national semifinals.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Indiana defeated Oregon by 10 points in their first meeting this season in October.
- These programs are 2-2 against each other all-time, with Indiana winning their only two matchups since the year 2000.
- Both teams are 9-5 against the spread this season.
Oregon vs Indiana Model Projection
Final Thoughts
