Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Pick & Prediction – 12/28/2025

Sunday’s Atlantic Division battle between the Montreal Canadiens and the Tampa Bay Lightning should be an interesting one from Tampa. The Canadiens arrive with a significant rest advantage, while Tampa Bay enters off a win over the Florida Panthers just one day ago. Can the Lightning overcome any fatigue and get a second win in as many days? Continue reading to get my Canadiens vs Lightning prediction below.

Our Canadiens vs Lightning Pick

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date & Time: Sunday, December 28, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
• Venue: Amalie Arena, Tampa, Florida
• Broadcast: ESPN+

Key Storylines

Recent form

Montreal has won three of its last four games entering Sunday, including a 6–2 romp against the Bruins and a shutout over the Pittsburgh Penguins. They have not played since before Christmas and will hope that their rest advantage in this game helps them to get a win on the road. Tampa Bay, coming off a 4–2 win over Florida, has earned three consecutive victories and shown they can score across their lineup. The Lightning have been effective at home this season, but they have shown some vulnerability against Eastern Conference opponents at times this year.

Goaltending

Montreal’s likely starter, Jakub Dobes, has a sub-.900 save percentage, which can be exploited by a team light the Lightning. Jacob Fowler has posted a better stat line in limited action with a strong save rate, but consistency in net for the Canadiens remains a concern. On the Tampa Bay side, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been reliable with a save percentage above .910 and solid goals-against numbers, stabilizing the Lightning’s defensive framework and giving them an edge between the pipes.

Key skaters

For Montreal, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield provide top-end firepower, with Lane Hutson contributing significant offense from the blue line. Their ability to generate scoring chances and convert on the power play will be critical. Tampa Bay’s offense features Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel, both capable of scoring at any time. Pontus Holmberg and Jake Guentzel scored in the Lightning’s recent win, illustrating the depth Tampa Bay can roll out.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Tampa Bay got a decisive 6–1 victory over the Habs in the first meeting between these teams this season.
• The Habs are 19-18 on the puckline going into this game.
• Tampa is 17-20 on the puckline for the year.

Canadiens vs Lightning Model Projection

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.