San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction & Props – 12/25/2025

The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder will square off in one of the most interesting games on the NBA Christmas Day schedule on Thursday at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The Thunder have been far and away the best team in the NBA so far this season, but the Spurs have owned them early in the year and will try to upset the defending champions again in this contest. Before tip-off from OKC, continue reading to get my Spurs vs Thunder prediction for this Christmas matchup.

Our Spurs vs Thunder Pick

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date & Time: Thursday, December 25, 2025, 2:30 PM ET
• Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
• Broadcast: ABC

Key Storylines

• Oklahoma City holds the league’s best record at 26-4 and sits atop the Western Conference as defending champions.
• San Antonio is 22-7 and has won seven straight games (not including the NBA Cup final), including both recent meetings against the Thunder this season.
• The Spurs’ latest win over OKC was a 130-110 triumph that was the product of balanced scoring from Keldon Johnson, Stephon Castle, and Victor Wembanyama off the bench. San Antonio will try to improve to 3-0 against the Thunder on the year with a win in this game.
• Wembanyama’s minutes will remain monitored due to recent calf strain recovery and that minutes restriction has resulted in him coming off the bench in multiple games.
• Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues his MVP-caliber campaign with elite scoring. SGA comes into this contest averaging 32.5 points per game, which ranks second in the NBA going into Christmas Day.
• This game is the only game taking place in the NBA when it is going on, as part of the five-game Christmas Day slate. Both of these young teams from smaller media markets have a huge platform here to make a statement that they have the brighter future, even with OKC winning the title last season.

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

• San Antonio is 2-0 straight up against OKC this season, winning outright as an underdog in both of those games.
• OKC is 16-14 against the spread so far this season.
• San Antonio is 16-12-2 against the spread going into Christmas Day.
• The Spurs have gone over the total 16 times in 30 games.
• OKC is 15-15 on over/unders for the year.

Best Player Props to Watch

Spurs vs Thunder Model Projection

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.