Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans Prediction & Pick – 12/21/2025

The Kansas City Chiefs (6‑8) will face the Tennessee Titans (2‑12) on Sunday in a game that is packed with storylines. Both teams will enter Nissan Stadium in Nashville having been eliminated from playoff contention. This is the first game in a long time that the Chiefs are playing that won’t come with Super Bowl aspirations attached to it. Before this Week 16 matchup begins in the AFC, you can find my Chiefs vs Titans prediction here.

Our Chiefs vs Titans Pick

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans
• Date & Time: Sunday, December 21, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
• Broadcast: CBS

Key Storylines

This Week 16 contest features plenty of interesting narratives. Kansas City enters having just been eliminated from the playoff hunt following a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15. In that defeat, star quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL and LCL, ending his season. That has triggered an immediate shift in betting lines and expectations for this Sunday’s game. With Mahomes sidelined, backup quarterback Gardner Minshew will make the start.

Tennessee sits at the bottom of the AFC South with a 2‑12 record and hopes of a first home victory this season have grown with Mahomes out for the Chiefs. The question going into this game is whether or not the Titans can get enough stops to win this game, even with Mahomes out of commission for the Chiefs in this contest.

Quarterback Play

Mahomes’ season‑ending knee injury forced him out late in Week 15, thrusting Gardner Minshew into the starting role for Sunday’s game. Minshew completed 3/5 pass attempts for 22 yards in limited action in place of Mahomes. He will have more of a chance to prove himself in this matchup.

Tennessee’s offense is led by quarterback Cam Ward, whose performance has been pretty disappointing this year. But there is an argument to be made that Ward is not the worst quarterback on the field in this matchup, as he looks to bring the Titans to their third win of the year.

Betting Trends

• The Chiefs have struggled on the road this season with only one win away from home.
• Tennessee has failed to win at Nissan Stadium, posting an 0‑7 home record heading into this game.
• The Chiefs are 5-8-1 against the spread so far this season.
• Tennessee is 6-7-1 against the spread entering Week 16.
• The under has hit in 10 of 14 games for the Chiefs this year.
• The over has cashed in 9 of the 14 games for the Titans.

Chiefs vs Titans Model Projection

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.