As college football bowl season rolls on, the Xbox Bowl will feature the Missouri State Bears taking on the Arkansas State Red Wolves on Thursday night. Both teams enter this matchup having gone 5-3 in their respective conferences and looking to finish strong with a bowl game victory. Missouri State got to bowl season in its first year of FBS eligibility with a 7-5 record. Arkansas State is 6-6 and will try to get a win to end their recent losing streak. Before kickoff from Texas, my Missouri State vs Arkansas State prediction can be found right here.
Our Missouri State vs Arkansas State Pick
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Missouri State Bears vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Date & Time: Thursday, December 18, 2025, 9:00 PM ET
- Venue: Ford Center at The Star, Frisco, TX
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
The Xbox Bowl is a historic moment for Missouri State, as it is the first postseason game for the Bears at the FBS level. The Bears exceeded expectations to earn a 7-5 record, going 5-3 in Conference USA to punch its ticket to bowl season. But the Bears dropped their final two regular-season games and will need to bounce back to win their first bowl game in school history.
Arkansas State enters its third straight bowl appearance and carries the experience advantage in postseason play. The Red Wolves needed a road win against App State in their final regular-season game in order to get to a bowl game. They got just that, beating the Mountaineers 30-29 in that must-win contest.
Quarterback Play
Missouri State’s offense has been led by quarterback Jacob Clark, who has thrown for nearly 2,900 yards with 24 touchdown passes. His ability to move the ball through the air has been key to the Bears’ offensive success, though he enters this game with 11 interceptions and needs to be more careful with the ball to help his team win.
For the Red Wolves, Jaylen Raynor provides an experienced presence under center. He completed around two-thirds of his passes for more than 3,000 yards and 16 touchdowns this season. He also had more than 400 yards and seven touchdowns with his legs. Raynor’s comfort in Arkansas State’s system and his experience in big games should help the Red Wolves’ prospects in this bowl. But Raynor also threw 11 picks this season and has to take care of the football.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Arkansas State is 2-0 all-time against Missouri State. This is their first matchup with both teams playing at the FBS level.
- Missouri State went 7-5 against the spread this season.
- Arkansas State went 8-4 against the spread this year.
Missouri State vs Arkansas State Model Projection
Final Thoughts
