The New Mexico Lobos are heavy favorites as they host the Colorado State Rams this Saturday at University Stadium in Albuquerque. With a 6‑3 record, the Lobos are in strong position in the Mountain West. The Rams are 2‑7 and are playing for pride during the closing stages of a rough season. Before this game kicks off from New Mexico, continue reading to get my Colorado State vs New Mexico prediction in the Mountain West.
Our Colorado State vs New Mexico Pick
- Pick: New Mexico -14.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Colorado State Rams vs New Mexico Lobos
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 15, 2025, at 3:00 PM ET
- Venue: University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
- Broadcast: Mountain West Network
Key Storylines
New Mexico is expected to be firmly in control of this contest. Coming off a bye week, the Lobos will look to build on a thrilling 40–35 win over UNLV. The Lobos have won three games in a row and are just a game back of the top two in the Mountain West and a trip to the MWC title game. Colorado State is 2-7 and has gone through coaching and quarterback changes so far this year. They will try to play spoiler in this contest.
The Rams’ major weakness on defense is on the ground. They’re allowing 193 rushing yards per game, one of the worst averages in the FBS. That should be a big help for New Mexico, whose offense is balanced and capable of carving out yards with both run and pass. If the Lobos can dominate time of possession and limit turnovers, they’ll likely pull away in the second half of this game.
Quarterback Play
- New Mexico: Jack Layne has thrown for 1,940 yards with 12 touchdowns and 9 interceptions so far this season. The top priority for Layne in this game is to avoid throwing interceptions and forcing Colorado State to get third down stops throughout this game to slow the Lobos down.
- Colorado State: The Rams have rotated quarterbacks, including Jackson Brousseau. Brousseau leads the Rams with 993 passing yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. But their passing game has struggled to be efficient, and their pass protection has been spotty all year long.
Betting Trends
- Colorado State is 3-6 against the spread so far this season.
- New Mexico is 5-4 against the spread going into Saturday’s game.
- The Rams have gone under the total in 6 of their first 9 games.
- The Lobos have gone over the total 5 times in 9 games thus far.
Colorado State vs New Mexico Model Projection
Score Projection: New Mexico 37, Colorado State 20
Win Probability: New Mexico 65%, Colorado State 35%
Final Thoughts
All signs point to New Mexico controlling this game. They have the talent, home-field advantage, and statistical advantages to dominate Colorado State. The Rams’ offense has not shown enough consistency to keep pace with the Lobos, and the CSU defense has been vulnerable to chunk plays. I’m going to lay the points with New Mexico here, as they should get to 4-2 in Mountain West play.
