Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Prediction – 11/14/2025

The Miami Heat will go to Madison Square Garden to face the New York Knicks on Friday night in an important NBA Cup matchup. Miami won its first cup game of the season, while the Knicks are trying to bounce back from a loss in their opener. Here, you will find my analysis ahead of this contest, including my Heat vs Knicks prediction for Friday’s game.

Our Heat vs Knicks Pick

• Pick: Under 235.5
• Confidence: 3/5

Game Snapshot

Key Storylines

• Injury impact: For New York, star guard Jalen Brunson is listed as out with an ankle sprain incurred in their last outing. That’s a significant blow given his 28.0 points and 6.5 assists per game this season. The loss of his scoring and playmaking will force the Knicks to lean on secondary options more heavily.
• Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are confirmed out for this game on Miami’s side. Losing Herro reduces their spacing and perimeter scoring ability, while Adebayo’s absence will make it much harder for Miami to compete on the glass.
• Both teams are coming off losses in their last games. The Knicks were blown out 124‑107 at home by the Orlando Magic, while the Heat fell 130‑116 to the Cleveland Cavaliers and surrendered a lead in the fourth quarter of that game. That means each club enters this game hungry for a bounce‑back performance.
• The Knicks are 7-1 at home so far this season and suffereed their first home loss of the year to Orlando on Wednesday. Miami is 2-4 on the road and just finished a four-game homestand prior to this contest.

Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends

• The Knicks are 7‑4‑0 against the spread this season.
• The Heat are 8‑4-0 against the spread entering this game.
• The Knicks have gone 8-3 to the over through their first 11 games.
• Miami is 8-4 to the over through its first 12 outings.
• Miami defeated the Knicsk 115-107 in Miami in the first meeting between these teams for the season.

Best Player Props to Watch

Heat vs Knicks Model Projection

Score Projection: Knicks 118 – Heat 112

Win Probability: Knicks 62%, Heat 38%

Final Thoughts

I lean toward the under in this matchup from Madison Square Garden. The Knicks could see their offensive production slow down somewhat without Brunson in the lineup, while the Heat will have some trouble playing to their full potential on offense with Adebayo and Herro both missing time. Expect this game to fall short of the total, regardless of who gets the win in the end.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.