The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) head to Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Sunday to face the Buffalo Bills (6-3). Both teams have identical records and are both coming off a loss in their last game. Buffalo is a home favorite in this contest and will try to continue its winning ways at home. I have broken this game down from all angles and you can find my Buccaneers vs Bills prediction below.
Our Buccaneers vs Bills Pick
- Pick: Buffalo Bills -5.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 16, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
The Bills are very hard to beat at home. They’ve won 14 of their last 15 games at Highmark Stadium, a tremendous .933 home winning percentage over that span. The Buccaneers come into this game with a record of 4-1 on the road this year. Both teams have thrived in these situations going into this game, but only one of them can get a win in this matchup.
The Buccaneers are coming off a loss to the New England Patriots in which they allowed multiple big plays and struggled on third down. Their defense has surrendered three touchdown runs of 55+ yards recently and the offense went just 5/13 on third down in last week’s 28-23 loss.
The Bills were humbled last week by the Miami Dolphins in a 30-13 defeat that came despite the Bills being heavy favorites. The fact that both teams are coming off poor efforts makes this a bounce-back opportunity game for both sides with high stakes for both teams.
Quarterback Play
Bills QB Josh Allen is still the central piece of their offense. He has thrown for 2,139 yards with 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Allen is also a great runner and will use his mobility to move the Bucs’ defense around.
The Bucs’ signal-caller is Baker Mayfield, who has had a strong season in Tampa Bay’s balanced offense. But he’ll face a Bills defence that forces turnovers and thrives at home. The Bucs need to get Mayfield into rhythm with clean protection to help him stay at just two interceptions for the season.
Betting Trends
- The Bucs are 5-4 against the spread so far this season.
- Buffalo is 4-5 against the spread going into Week 11.
- The Buccaneers have gone over the total in 5 of their first 9 games.
- The under has cashed 5 times in 9 games for the Bills.
Buccaneers vs Bills Model Projection
Score Projection: Buffalo Bills 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Win Probability: Bills 68%, Buccaneers 32%
Final Thoughts
I’ll take the Buffalo Bills to win and cover the spread as a favorite over the Bucs. Buffalo has been consistently good at home over the last couple of years, beating some of the best teams in the league at Highmark Stadium. They should do it again here and keep themselves within striking distance of the Patriots in the AFC East standings.
