The Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins will play in Madrid this Sunday in a game that both teams could use. These teams are each sitting at 3-7 and running out of time to turn their respective seasons around. Miami is a slight favorite going into this game. Before the action begins at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, continue reading for my breakdown of the game, including my Commanders vs Dolphins prediction.
Our Commanders vs Dolphins Pick
- Pick: Commanders +3
- Confidence: 1/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 16, 2025, 9:30 a.m. ET
- Venue: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid, Spain
- Broadcast: NFL Network
Key Storylines
- The Dolphins come into this game after a 30-13 win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 10, showing signs of life after a rough start. Miami was the more composed team in that game, forcing mistakes from Buffalo while avoiding too many mistakes of their own. If they can sustain that this week, they could get a third win in four games.
- Miami’s rushing attack is a clear positive for them offensively. Running back De’Von Achane posted 174 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries in that Buffalo win. His continued production would help take pressure off Tua Tagovailoa and the passing game.
- Washington is in disarray at this point in the season. Starting quarterback Jayden Daniels will not travel to Madrid due to a dislocated elbow. Backup Marcus Mariota will start and that has not gone well for the Commanders to this point in the season.
- Washington has allowed 35.8 points per game during their five-game losing streak. The move by head coach Dan Quinn to take over defensive coordinator duties shows that Washington is searching for some kind of answer on that side of the ball.
Quarterback Play
Tua Tagovailoa’s season has been inconsistent. He is completing 68.2% of his passes, averaging 195.2 passing yards per game, and has 17 touchdown passes. But he also has three interceptions and has to take better care of the football.
With Daniels out, the Commanders will deploy Mariota at quarterback. Washington has lost all but one of the games that Mariota has appeared in this season and they will need him to help elevate their passing game with Daniels out.
Betting Trends
- Washington is 3-7 against the spread this season.
- Miami is 5-5 against the spread going into this matchup.
- The Dolphins have gone 6-3-1 to the over through 10 games.
- The over is 5-4-1 for Washington’s games this year.
Commanders vs Dolphins Model Projection
Score Projection: Commanders 23 – Dolphins 24
Win Probability: Commanders 42%, Dolphins 58%
Final Thoughts
If you can feel confident about either of these teams on a football field over the course of 60 minutes right now, you are a braver person than I am. I’ll take the points with Washington here, as I feel as though the Bills beat themselves more than anything else last week in Miami. But I would keep any bets on this game as small as possible, as both of these teams are poor representatives of the NFL across the pond.
