Mississippi State vs Iowa State Pick & Prediction – 11/10/2025

The early non-conference clash between the Iowa State Cyclones (2-0) and the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-0) on Monday night is set to be the game of the night in college basketball. Iowa State enters the game as a favorite, but this game is being played at a neutral site and the Cyclones won’t be able to rely on Hilton Magic here. Before tip-off from Sioux Falls, continue reading to get my Mississippi State vs Iowa State prediction.

Our Mississippi State vs Iowa State Pick

Pick: Iowa State −5.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

Key Storylines

• Iowa State returns its trio of key players for this season. Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson, and Milan Momcilovic are expected to lead Iowa State to another strong season on both ends of the floor. They got blowout wins over Fairleigh Dickinson and Grambling State in their first two games.
• Mississippi State crushed North Alabama in the first game of their season. They held the Lions to just 62 points in that game, but they could have a much tougher time getting defensive stops against the explosive Cyclones.
• The neutral-site location at Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls removes a true home-court advantage from this game. But Iowa State is closer geographically to this venue and that could matter in the first significant test for both squads.
• Mississippi State must find secondary scoring beyond standout guard Josh Hubbard. Hubbard had 27 points and eight assists in the opener for the Bulldogs. He will need others to step up and chip in if they are going to beat the Cyclones.

Betting Trends

• Iowa State is 1-1 in the over/under market going into this matchup.
• Mississippi State went under the spread in its season opener against North Alabama.
• The Cyclones have covered the spread in each of their first two games.
• Mississippi State is 0-1 against the spread entering Monday’s action.

Mississippi State vs Iowa State Model Projection

Score Projection: Iowa State 80 – Mississippi State 68
Win Probability: Iowa State 70%, Mississippi State 30%

Final Thoughts

I’m very high on this Iowa State team this season. Their veteran experience and execution will do them a world of good early in the season and late in the season. I think they get a win and cover the spread in this neutral site matchup against a Mississippi State team that doesn’t have the same scoring depth that the Cyclones do.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.