New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction – 11/5/2025

The New Orleans Pelicans (1‑6) will take on the Dallas Mavericks (2-5) on Wednesday night. Both teams head into Wednesday night’s game looking to turn around a brutal start to their seasons. Both teams are dealing with key injuries and poor play on the floor, but one team has to win this matchup from Dallas. Before tip-off, continue reading for my Pelicans vs Mavericks prediction.

Our Pelicans vs Mavericks Pick

• Pick: Under 228.5
• Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: New Orleans Pelicans @ Dallas Mavericks
• Date & Time: Wednesday, November 5, 2025, 8:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
• Broadcast: NBA League Pass

Key Storylines

This contest features two teams dealing with both injury issues and inconsistency. Pelicans forward Zion Williamson is expected to miss at least 7–10 days with a left hamstring strain, removing the team’s leading scorer (22.8 PPG) and rebounder (6.8 RPG) from their lineup. The Pelicans have lost four straight road games and Williamson’s absence likely won’t help them end that streak.

Dallas will also be shorthanded here. The Mavericks are without Anthony Davis (left calf strain) and Dereck Lively II (right knee sprain) for this game. The absence of those frontcourt pieces limits their ability to rebound the basketball and protect the rim, putting all of that responsibility on Daniel Gafford.

Both of these teams are desperate for a win. The Pelicans got their first win of the season last night against the lowly Charlotte Hornets and will try to win for a second straight night here. Dallas has dropped two games in a row going into this matchup. A loss here would be demoralizing for either team given how bad their opponent has been playing thus far.

Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends

• This is the first of four regular-season games that the Pelicans and Mavericks will play against each other this season.
• New Orleans is 2-4-1 against the spread so far this year.
• Dallas is 3-4 against the spread going into this contest.
• The Wizards are 4-3 on over/unders going into Wednesday night.
• Dallas has stayed under the total in five of its first seven games.

Best Player Props to Watch

Pelicans vs Mavericks Model Projection

Score Projection: New Orleans Pelicans 106 – Dallas Mavericks 114

Win Probability: Pelicans 34% / Mavericks 66%

Final Thoughts

My best bet for this contest is for the game to stay under the total from Dallas. Both of these teams are in the bottom five in the NBA in offensive rating so far this year. And with both teams missing some of their best offensive players, we should see both teams struggle to put the ball in the basket for the most part. I’ll take the under here and hope for a game that is hard to watch on the offensive end for both sides.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.