The South Florida Bulls and Memphis Tigers will meet in a huge game in the American Athletic Conference on Saturday. Both teams are 6-1 on the season and are in contention in the AAC title race. But only one of these teams can get a win in this game from Memphis. Before this contest kicks off, keep reading to get my South Florida vs Memphis prediction below.
Our South Florida vs Memphis Pick
- Pick: Memphis +6.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: South Florida Bulls @ Memphis Tigers
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 25, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
This game will be a battle between the high-powered offense of South Florida and the defense of Memphis. The Bulls are near the top of the FBS in scoring and total yards, while the Tigers’ defense has advanced metrics that demand respect.
USF’s offensive numbers stand out. They are averaging 471 yards per game, good for 12th nationally. Their scoring efficiency ranks near the top 20 in FBS. But their defense is less imposing, allowing roughly 389 yards per game and 23 points per game. Those are middle-of-the-pack marks nationally.
Memphis’ defense enters this contest with a stout rush defense, leading the conference in rush yards allowed per game at around 107 yards. That says the Tigers have the capability to slow down the ground game. But South Florida’s offense has been both balanced and explosive. Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown leads the team with 1,695 passing yards and 16 touchdowns with just five interceptions.
Memphis slipped in its most recent outing in a surprising loss to UAB. They may have been looking ahead to this game and they will try to bounce back here against one of the best teams in college football.
Quarterback Play
Byrum Brown is the engine for South Florida on offense. He leads the Bulls in both passing and rushing yards. With 1,695 yards passing and 16 touchdowns, he has the skill set to exploit lapses in coverage. Memphis’ defense will key in on containing his legs and forcing the Bulls into being a more one-dimensional passing team.
Memphis’ offense is more run-oriented and leans on game management. Quarterback Brendon Lewis has thrown for 1,337 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions this year. He will give the ball to running back Sutton Smith early and often to keep the USF defense off-balance.
Betting Trends
- USF is 5-1-1 against the spread for the season.
- Memphis is 6-1 against the spread this year.
- USF has seen four of their seven games go over their totals.
- Memphis is 3-4 on totals for the year.
South Florida vs Memphis Model Projection
Score Projection: South Florida 34 – Memphis 31
Win Probability: South Florida 65%, Memphis 35%
Final Thoughts
This could end up being one of the best games in all of college football on Saturday. It should be close throughout and I will take the points with the Memphis Tigers. Memphis is tied for the second-best record against the spread in college football and they should be able to keep this game inside of six points at home as they try desperately to avoid a second loss in a row.
