The Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors will meet the Colorado State Rams on Saturday night. Hawai’i can secure a bowl bid with a win on Saturday, but they are slight underdogs on the road against a desperate Colorado State team. Before this game begins in Fort Collins, you can find my Hawai’i vs Colorado State prediction below.
Our Hawai‘i vs Colorado State Pick
- Pick: Hawai‘i +2.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Hawai‘i Rainbow Warriors vs Colorado State Rams
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 18, 2025, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, CO
- Broadcast: Mountain West App
Key Storylines
- Offensive resurgence in Hawai‘i: Hawai‘i exploded for 546 total yards in their win over Utah State last week. Their offensive explosion was powered by a healthy receiving corps, including Pofele Ashlock and Jackson Harris. They will try to put pressure on the Rams’ secondary in this game as Hawai’i looks for a third win in a row.
- Colorado State’s defensive struggles: CSU ranks 92nd nationally in red-zone defense, surrendering scores on 88.2% of opponent trips. They’ve also allowed about 405.5 yards per game and they will try to keep Hawai’i in check to control time of possession and wear down the Hawai’i defense.
- Coach storyline & revenge subplot: Hawai‘i head coach Timmy Chang was once an assistant under Jay Norvell at Colorado State, adding personal motivation to this contest. Norvell’s job security is under scrutiny, which could also be a factor with all of the midseason firings in college football this season.
- Home field biases & road woes: CSU has won seven of their last 10 games at home. Hawai‘i has had difficulty winning on the road, losing 16 of their last 20 away games. Those patterns suggest a slight edge for the Rams at home.
Quarterback Play
Hawai‘i’s Micah Alejado has passed for 1,456 yards this season with nine touchdowns and five interceptions heading into this game. He also brings mobility at quarterback, as evidenced in the Utah State win, where he threw three touchdowns and ran for another.
Colorado State’s Jackson Brousseau has thrown for 565 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions thus far. He has done a nice job since stepping in at quarterback for Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and will try to continue doing so in this contest.
Betting Trends
- Hawai’i is 5-1 against the spread this season.
- Colorado State is 3-3 against the spread going into this week.
- Both of these teams are 3-3 on over/unders going into this Mountain West matchup.
Hawai‘i vs Colorado State Model Projection
Score Projection: Hawai‘i 28 – Colorado State 27
Win Probability: Hawai‘i 51%, Colorado State 49%
Final Thoughts
This is going to be a tight game and will come down to which team can execute its offense in crunch time. I think that team will be Hawai’i, whose quarterback continuity is a huge plus in a situation like this. I’ll take Hawai’i to win outright as a slight underdog and to get to six wins on the year, which means bowl eligibility.
