The Texas State Bobcats and Marshall Thundering Herd are both 3-3 on the season going into this weekend. Both teams are halfway to bowl eligibility with half of their season still to play. Which team will get the 4-3 with a win here? Continue reading to find my Texas State vs Marshall prediction for this contest.
Our Texas State vs Marshall Pick
- Pick: Marshall +3
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Texas State Bobcats vs Marshall Thundering Herd
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 18, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, WV
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Texas State vs Marshall Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Texas State –3 | Texas State –145, Marshall +125 | 64.5 |
Key Storylines
- Can Texas State’s defense hold up? The Bobcats have been vulnerable on defense, allowing 29.8 points per game. Their run defense has struggled in particular. Against a balanced Marshall offense, that weakness could be exposed.
- Marshall’s passing attack under Del Rio-Wilson has been efficient. DRW has thrown 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions so far. If his protection holds, he can control this game through the air and make things easier on his running game.
- Game script importance: Texas State tends to be run-heavy on offense. But to crack a strong run defense, they may need to air it out. I’m expecting an interesting chess match between the Bobcats offense and Thundering Herd defense.
- Momentum & home edge: Marshall won its last game at home in conference play by 24 points over Old Dominion. They will look for another home win in conference play against Texas State team that has lost two straight road games.
Quarterback Play
Texas State’s Brad Jackson has completed roughly 70% of his passes, amassing 1,342 yards with seven touchdowns to just one interception. He also has 336 rushing yards with seven rushing touchdowns. The dual-threat quarterback gives Texas State some offensive flexibility.
Marshall’s Carlos Del Rio-Wilson has been pinpoint accurate. He is 68 of 89 passing for 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also has 260 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. His careful decision-making and ability to avoid mistakes could help Marshall win outright as a home underdog.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Texas State is 2-4 against the spread this season.
- Marshall is 4-2 against the spread on the year.
- Texas State is 3-3 on over/unders.
- Marshall is 4-2 to the over going into this week’s game.
- This is the first-ever meeting between these programs.
Texas State vs Marshall Model Projection
Score Projection: Texas State 31 – Marshall 34
Win Probability: Texas State 45%, Marshall 55%
Final Thoughts
Marshall is a field goal underdog at home in this game. But I think that they have a great chance to win straight up here. The Thundering Herd don’t make mistakes with their passing game and the ability to avoid throwing interceptions should help them hang around throughout this game. I’ll take Marshall to cover the spread as an underdog here and would not be surprised at all if they managed to win this game outright.
