Sun Belt rivals will meet when Troy and UL Monroe take the field against each other on Saturday afternoon. The Trojans are slight favorites on the road but the Warhawks will be eager to get back above the .500 mark for the season with a win. Here, I break down this matchup in the Sun Belt and make my Troy vs UL Monroe prediction for Saturday.
Our Troy vs UL Monroe Pick
- Pick: Troy -5.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Troy Trojans vs UL Monroe Warhawks
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 18, 2025, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: JPS Field at Malone Stadium, Monroe, LA
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Troy vs UL Monroe Odds
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy | -5.5 | -215 | Over 46.5 |
| UL Monroe | +5.5 | +180 | Under 46.5 |
Key Storylines
- Quarterback Play: Troy’s Tucker Kilcrease has thrown for 831 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions this season. He had 415 passing yards and five touchdowns in Troy’s 48-41 overtime win over Texas State in their last game. Kilcrease will try to outperform UL Monroe’s Aidan Armenta. Armenta has 749 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and four interceptions on the season. He will try to keep the Warhawks in this game.
- Rushing Attack: UL Monroe’s Braylon McReynolds has rushed for 436 yards and two touchdowns. He is averaging 6.2 yards per carry and will try to eat up chunks of yardage in this game as well. Troy’s Taye Meadows has 432 rushing yards this season. The running back matchup in this game is very evenly matched.
- Defensive Struggles: UL Monroe’s defense has allowed 29.8 points per game. Troy’s offense will try to exploit that, though that number is inflated by UL Monroe’s poor showings against power conference opponents.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Going Streaking: Troy has won three consecutive games, including victories over Texas State and South Alabama. UL Monroe has lost 2 straight games, including a 23-8 defeat to Coastal Carolina in their last outing.
- ATS Trends: Troy is 4-2 against the spread for the season. UL Monroe is 2-4 against the number going into this week.
- Over/Under Trends: Both of these teams have gone 3-3 on over/unders through their first six games of the season.
- Head-to-Head: Troy is 9-8 all-time against UL Monroe. ULM won the last meeting between these teams by a score of 13-9 last season.
Troy vs UL Monroe Model Projection
Score Projection: Troy 27 – UL Monroe 17
Win Probability: Troy 75%, UL Monroe 25%
Final Thoughts
Troy is 2-0 in Sun Belt Conference play going into this game. And while they needed overtime to win both of those games, they are clearly making the plays that need to be made in order to get those wins. I am going to lay the points with the Trojans in this matchup and I expect them to find a way to win yet again in conference play.
