Jafel Filho and Clayton Carpenter will meet on Saturday’s UFC Fight Night card from Rio de Janeiro. These flyweights both took losses in their most recent fights. They have a chance to get back on track with a win here, with Filho entering as a slight favorite on home soil. Before this fight begins on Saturday, continue reading to get my Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter prediction.
Our Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter Pick
- Pick: Clayton Carpenter to win
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Jafel Filho | Clayton Carpenter |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 29 |
| Height | 5’7″ | 5’6″ |
| Reach | 68.5″ | 66″ |
| Record | 16-4-0 | 8-1-0 |
Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter Preview
Jafel Filho has a 16-4 record and has a big experience edge over Clayton Carpenter. Filho is a submission specialist and has earned 10 of his 16 career wins by submission. Filho is 2-2 since joining UFC and most recently suffered a setback against Allan Nascimento. Filho’s two UFC wins have both come by submission and he will try to get another stoppage win in this fight.
Clayton Carpenter enters this fight with an 8-1 record. After starting his UFC career with two rear-naked choke victories, Carpenter faced a setback against Tagir Ulanbekov, losing by decision. Both of Carpenter’s UFC wins have also come by submission and this fight could turn into a battle to see who does the best job of setting up a submission attempt and cashing in on it.
Carpenter does have the benefit of being a more versatile fighter coming into this matchup. He is a more active striker and is more capable of using ground and pound to his advantage. But both fighters are very good at imposing their will on the ground and that is where this fight will likely be decided.
Betting Insights
- Moneyline Odds: Jafel Filho is a slight favorite at -125. Clayton Carpenter is the underdog at +105.
- Over/Under: The over/under for this fight has been set at 2.5 rounds. The over is favored at -166, with the under at +130.
- Three of Filho’s four UFC fights have been decided inside the distance.
- Two of Carpenter’s three UFC fights have been decided inside the distance.
Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter Prediction
We are going to see both of these fighters grapple and battle on the ground to try and impose their will in this fight. I think there is some value in the underdog here, as Carpenter has just as good a chance of winning this one as Filho. Carpenter has more paths to victory here, as he can do a little bit more from a striking standpoint, with both fighters are relatively equal when it comes to their specialties on the ground.
