Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto Prediction – 10/11/2025

Jhonata Diniz and Mario Pinto will meet at UFC Fight Night 261 on Saturday in Rio de Janeiro. Pinto is undefeated in his MMA career and will look to keep it that way against a fighter in Diniz who is looking to impress on home soil. Before this heavyweight matchup from Rio, continue reading for my Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto prediction.

Our Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto Pick

• Pick: Jhonata Diniz to win by knockout
• Confidence: ★★★★☆

Tale of the Tape

Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto Preview

Jhonata Diniz enters this fight with a 9-1 record and an average of 4.58 significant strikes per minute. His only loss came against Marcin Tybura, who is a top 10 fighter in the UFC heavyweight division. Diniz is expected to throw a higher volume of strikes in this fight. And while he is less accurate than Pinto with his striking, Diniz is still plenty dangerous.

Mario Pinto has an undefeated 10-0 record, and he won his UFC debut in March against Austen Lane. Pinto’s striking accuracy is impressive at 73% and six of his wins have come by knockout. This would easily be the best win of Pinto’s professional MMA career if he was to get the victory on Saturday night. To do that, he will need to find a way to land quality strikes to offset Diniz’s volume.

Betting Insights

• Jhonata Diniz is the betting favorite at -112, while Mario Pinto is listed at -108.
• The over/under for this fight is set at 1.5 rounds. The over is -230, while the under is +175.
• Seven of Diniz’s nine career wins have come by knockout.
• Seven of Pinto’s 10 career wins have come by knockout or submission.

Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto Prediction

This could be one of the most exciting fights on the card from Rio on Saturday night. The heavyweight division can be hit-or-miss when it comes to fight quality. But both of these fighters are happy to stand and throw huge shots at their opponents and we should see a ton of power shots land in this fight. The question in this fight will be which fighter can land the decisive blows and wobble their opponent to secure a win.

I think that Diniz will be the one to do enough to win this fight by knockout. Diniz will be the busier fighter throughout this matchup. And with Pinto still adjusting to the bright lights of UFC, we could see Diniz with the upper hand in front of a crowd that will urge the Brazilian to dig deep. I’ll take Diniz by knockout in what should be a fun fight from South America.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.