Vicente Luque and Joel Álvarez will face off on the main card of UFC Fight Night from Rio De Janeiro on Saturday night. Luque is fighting in his home country of Brazil and will look to pull off an upset against a red-hot fighter in Alvarez. But that will not be an easy task given how well Alvarez has been performing going into this fight. Here, I break down this welterweight matchup and make my Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez prediction for Saturday.
Our Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez Pick
- Pick: Joel Álvarez to win by submission
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Vicente Luque | Joel Álvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33 | 32 |
| Height | 5’11” | 6’3″ |
| Reach | 75.5″ | 77″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 23-11-1 | 22-3 |
Vicente Luque vs Joel Álvarez Preview
Joel Álvarez enters this bout with a 22-3 record. He is transitioning from lightweight to welterweight due to challenges in making the 155-pound limit. Álvarez possesses a significant size advantage over Luque in both height and reach. His recent performances have been impressive, securing three consecutive wins, all by knockout or submission. All 22 of Alvarez’s career wins have come by knockout or submission and he will try to keep that trend going with a stoppage win here.
Vicente Luque enters this fight with a 23-11-1 record. He has been a mainstay in the welterweight division, but he has struggled recently with four losses in his last six fights. Three of those four recent losses have come by knockout or submission and it will be up to Luque to try and find a way to avoid being stopped again in this fight.
Luque is one of many Brazilian fighters who are taking to the octagon in this card from Rio. But many of those fighters enter as underdogs, with Luque being one of them. He will need to avoid eating big shots from the powerful Alvarez to avoid losing in front of his countrymen.
Betting Insights
- Joel Álvarez is a significant favorite at -535 to win this fight..
- Vicente Luque’s odds to win this fight stand at +400.
- The over/under for the fight is set at 1.5 rounds, with the under priced at -154, suggesting expectations for an early finish.
- Only one fight has gone to decision in the career of Alvarez.
- Luque has seen three straight fights end inside the distance.
Vicente Luque vs Joel Álvarez Prediction
Joel Álvarez appears to have the upper hand in this matchup as far as I’m concerned. His size advantage, aggressive striking, and submission capabilities position him well to break down Luque’s defenses in a variety of ways. My expectation is for Alvarez to use his striking to get Luque of balance, allowing the Spaniard to set up a submission. I’ll back Alvarez to win by submission and for him to get a 23rd career stoppage win.
