The Penn State Nittany Lions will host the Northwestern Wildcats on Saturday afternoon. Penn State has lost two games in a row and went from being an elite team to being unranked in the blink of an eye. They will try to get back on track at home against a middling Northwestern team. Here, you will find my Northwestern vs Penn State prediction before this Big Ten game kicks off.
Our Northwestern vs Penn State Pick
- Pick: Penn State -21.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats vs Penn State Nittany Lions
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 3:30 PM EDT
- Venue: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
- Broadcast: FS1
Northwestern vs Penn State Odds
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | -21.5 | -1800 | Over 48.5 |
| Northwestern | +21.5 | +900 | Under 48.5 |
Key Storylines
- Northwestern’s Offensive Balance: Northwestern is off to a 3-2 start, with their two losses coming against very good teams in Oregon and Tulane. The Wildcats have found efficiency through the air with Prestone Stone running their offense. Running back Caleb Komolafe has also been an impact player with 344 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The Wildcats will try to prove themselves offensively on the road against Penn State this week.
- Penn State’s Struggles in Big Ten Play: Despite a strong start, Penn State has lost both of its Big Ten games, including an upset loss to UCLA. Head coach James Franklin is facing mounting pressure thanks to the team’s performance in conference play.
- Defensive Matchups: Both defenses have been solid entering this game. Penn State is allowing 17.8 points per game, while Northwestern’s defense has given up 17.0 points per game. Penn State has allowed 72 points over their last two games and will try to get back on track on that side of the ball here.
Quarterback Play
Preston Stone leads Northwestern with 918 passing yards and seven touchdowns. However, his six interceptions indicate that he can make questionable decisions under duress. Penn State’s Drew Allar has been efficient with 963 passing yards and eight touchdowns, maintaining a 64.7% completion rate. Allar will try to bounce back from a disappointing last couple of games and get his team its first Big Ten win of the season.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Northwestern: The Wildcats are 3-2 overall and 3-2 against the spread this season.
- Penn State: Penn State is 3-2 overall and 0-5 against the spread this season.
- Over/Under Trends: Northwestern has seen three of its first five games stay under their totals this year. Penn State has gone 4-1 to the over entering this week.
- Head-to-Head: Penn State is 14-4 all-time against Northwestern and has won the last three meetings between these programs.
Northwestern vs Penn State Model Projection
- Score Projection: Northwestern 13 – Penn State 38
- Win Probability: Penn State 90.2%, Northwestern 9.8%
Final Thoughts
This game is a great opportunity for Penn State to bounce back from a disappointing start to their Big Ten campaign. The Nittany Lions should take advantage of Stone’s sloppy play at quarterback for Northwestern. I’ll lay the points with Penn State here, as they should get their first conference win of the season in style.
