UMass and Kent State are set to face off on Saturday afternoon. UMass enters this game winless on the season and will try to get their first win of the year against a Kent State team that is just 1-4 on the year. Someone has to win this game and you can continue reading to find out who I think it will be, as I make my UMass vs Kent State prediction below.
Our UMass vs Kent State Pick
- Pick: Kent State -1.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: UMass Minutemen vs Kent State Golden Flashes
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 2:30 p.m. EDT
- Venue: Dix Stadium, Kent, OH
- Broadcast: ESPN+
UMass vs Kent State Odds
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Kent State -1.5 |
| Moneyline | Kent State -125, UMass +105 |
| Total | 50.5 |
Key Storylines
- UMass Offensive Woes: The Minutemen have had trouble sustaining drives and scoring consistently. Their points per game average is among the lowest in the country, as they enter this game averaging just 6.5 points per game in their four games against FBS opponents.
- Kent State Scoring Upside: The Golden Flashes have also struggled on offense this season. But they have faced Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Florida State in non-conference play. We could see a lot more from their offense as they return to MAC competition this week.
- Defensive Inconsistency: Kent State has surrendered a high number of points per contest and has been susceptible to explosive plays. This could also be a product of playing some of the biggest programs in college football. But if UMass can protect the football, they can make this game competitive.
Quarterback Play
Kent State is expected to rely on Devin Kargman at quarterback. He was held to just 74 passing yards last week against Oklahoma, but better quarterbacks than Kargman have also struggled in Norman this season. AJ Hairston was the quarterback for UMass in their last game against Western Michigan. He threw for just 131 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. He will try to be better against another MAC opponent this weekend.
Betting Trends & H2H
- UMass Trends: The Minutemen are 1-4 against the spread so far this season. They have gone over the total in three of their first five games.
- Kent State Trends: The Golden Flashes are 2-3 against the spread heading into this week. They are 3-2 to the over in their five outings this season.
- Head-to-Head: These programs are 1-1 against each other all-time. This is the first time that they will meet as opponents in the MAC.
UMass vs Kent State Model Projection
- Score Projection: Kent State 34 – UMass 20
- Win Probability: Kent State 59%, UMass 41%
Final Thoughts
I think that Kent State’s strength of schedule early in the season is something to think about going into this game. The Golden Flashes have looked just as bad as UMass statistically this season, but they have done so against a much tougher non-conference slate. Here, I think Kent State will get a win at home and cover the spread in their first MAC win of the season.
