The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees will face off in Game 3 of the ALDS on Tuesday night. Toronto leads the series 2–0 and can clinch a trip to the ALCS with a win, while New York must stave off elimination in front of its home crowd. New York is the favorite going into Game 3, but that didn’t help them in Game 2 of this series. Before the first pitch from the Bronx, continue reading to get my Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 3 prediction for Tuesday’s game.
Our Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 3 Pick
- Pick: Over 7.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees
- Date & Time: Tuesday, October 7, 2025, 8:08 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Shane Bieber (TOR) vs Carlos Rodón (NYY)
- Stadium: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
- Broadcast: FS1
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Toronto will hand the ball to Shane Bieber. Bieber went 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA during the regular season and will make his first start of this postseason here. The question will be whether Bieber can hold his own in a venue like this in a spot this important for his team.
New York will go with Carlos Rodón, a southpaw who posted an 18–9 record with a 3.09 ERA on the year. The Yankees got the win in Rodon’s first start of the playoffs against the Boston Red Sox and he will try to deliver again in this contest.
Key Players
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) — He has tormented the Yankees in past matchups. In this series, he’s already been scorching. He’s arguably Toronto’s central weapon going into Game 3.
- Daulton Varsho (TOR) — He went 4-for-5 with multiple extra-base hits in Game 2 and remains locked in.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — The Yankees need Judge to lead by example at the plate. If he can draw walks or launch a home run, it could help swing the momentum of this series back to New York.
Recent team streaks
Toronto has won six games in a row between the regular season and the postseason. They have outscored the Yankees 23-8 over the first two games of this series. The Yankees have lost two games in a row, but didn’t lose after being pushed to the brink of elimination by the Red Sox in the last round.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Suggested Bet |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Aaron Judge | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Carlos Rodón | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Toronto enters this game at 10-5 against the Yankees between the regular season and playoffs.
- The first two games of this series have gone over their totals, with Toronto reaching double-digits on the scoreboard in both of those games.
- This is the first playoff road game for the Blue Jays this season.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 3 Model Projection
Score Projection: Yankees 5 – Blue Jays 4
Win Probability: Yankees 53%, Blue Jays 47%
Final Thoughts
The Yankees should be able to avoid elimination tonight and prolong their season by at least another game. Rodon will be solid on the hill for them, while the Yankees offense will do just enough to outperform a Toronto lineup that is on fire of late. I’ll take the over in this contest, as both teams should continue to put up runs in this series.
