The Buffalo Bills (4-1) will travel to Atlanta to face the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) on Monday Night Football in Week 6 of the NFL season. After suffering their first loss of the season to the New England Patriots, the Bills will aim to rebound against a Falcons team coming off a bye week. Before this inter-conference matchup begins on the gridiron, continue reading to get my Bills vs Falcons prediction.
Our Bills vs Falcons Pick
- Pick: Buffalo Bills -3.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons
- Date & Time: Monday, October 13, 2025, 7:15 PM ET
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
- Broadcast: ESPN
Bills vs Falcons Odds
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Bills -3.5 |
| Moneyline | Bills -195 / Falcons +165 |
| Total | 48.5 |
Key Storylines
- Bills Looking to Bounce Back: Buffalo looks to recover from a 23-20 loss to the Patriots in Week 5. Buffalo committed three turnovers and allowed a game-winning field goal in the final seconds of that game. It was an inexplicably poor performance from the Bills, who were the clear Super Bowl favorites before that loss.
- Falcons’ Home Advantage: Atlanta returns from a bye week, aiming to capitalize on their home field and improve their 1-1 record at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons are averaging 27 points per game through their first two home games of the 2025 season.
- Injuries: Key defensive players for the Bills, including Matt Milano and Ed Oliver, are listed as questionable. This could impact Buffalo’s performance on defense, which is troublesome after they were torched by Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs, and the Patriots in Week 5.
Quarterback Play
- Josh Allen (Bills): In the loss to the Patriots, Allen threw for 253 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. His ability to limit turnovers will be crucial against the Falcons after some turnover regression from the reigning NFL MVP last week.
- Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons): Penix has shown promise in his second season, making plays both with his arm and his legs. But Penix is still inconsistent as a passer and will need to prove himself against a very good Buffalo defense in primetime.
Betting Trends
- Buffalo is 2-3 against the spread this season despite their 4-1 start straight up.
- Atlanta is 2-2 against the spread going into Week 6 play.
- Bills games have gone over their totals three times in five games.
- Atlanta has had three of their first four games stay under their respective totals.
Bills vs Falcons Model Projection
- Score Projection: Bills 27 – Falcons 22
- Win Probability: Bills 69%, Falcons 31%
Final Thoughts
The Bills suffered their first bit of adversity this season in their last game, failing to make the plays they needed to make on offense to beat the Patriots. But this game is a great bounce-back opportunity for Josh Allen and company, as they take on a Falcons defense that has already struggled against quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield and Marcus Mariota. I’ll lay the points with Buffalo here, as they should get back on track after their surprising loss in their last outing.
