Syracuse and SMU will meet in the Metroplex in an important ACC football game on Saturday. The Mustangs will try to take advantage of the quarterback issues for the Orange going into this matchup, issues that have made SMU a heavy favorite going into this game. Before kickoff between the Orange and Mustangs, you can keep reading to get my Syracuse vs SMU prediction.
Our Syracuse vs SMU Pick
- Pick: SMU -17.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Syracuse Orange vs SMU Mustangs
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
- Broadcast: ACC Network
Key Storylines
- Syracuse’s Offensive Struggles: The Orange are coming off a disappointing 38–3 loss to Duke, where they failed to generate significant offensive momentum. Their quarterback play was a concern in that contest, as the Orange are without original starter Steve Angeli due to injury. They will need to overcome that in order to get a win this week.
- SMU’s Defensive Vulnerabilities: SMU is 2-2 and making their debut in ACC play for the season. The Mustangs’ defense has allowed an average of 449.3 yards per game, ranking 124th in the FBS. They will need to be better on defense now that ACC play has arrived.
- Quarterback Play: Syracuse’s freshman quarterback Rickie Collins will make his first road start. That lack of experience playing in hostile environments could cost Collins and the Orange in this matchup.
Quarterback Play
Syracuse’s Rickie Collins, a freshman quarterback, will be making his first road start. Collins struggled in his first start since Angeli’s injury against Duke. His performance will be crucial in determining the outcome of the game.
SMU’s quarterback is Kevin Jennings, who has 1,126 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and five interceptions. He will aim to capitalize on Syracuse’s defensive weaknesses and extend drives through the air.
Betting Trends
- Syracuse Trends:
- Syracuse is 2-2-1 against the spread for the season.
- The Orange has gone over the total in three of their first five games this year.
- SMU Trends:
- SMU is 0-4 against the spread to begin the year and will look for its first cover to start ACC play.
- The Mustangs have gone under the total in three of their first four games.
Syracuse vs SMU Model Projection
- Score Projection: Syracuse 24 – SMU 42
- Win Probability: Syracuse 35%, SMU 65%
Final Thoughts
Syracuse is an interesting team to handicap right now. Statistically, their numbers still look good. But we all know that their offense is set to continue its regression without Angeli available. Here, I expect more problems for the Orange on offense, as Collins should have a hard time in his first start away from home.
My best bet for this game is for SMU to win and cover the spread as a heavy favorite. The Mustangs have averaged 43.5 points per game in their two home games this season and I’m expecting more big things from their offense in this matchup.
