The Virginia Cavaliers will visit the Louisville Cardinals in college football on Saturday. The Cavaliers are ranked 24th in the country going into this week at 4-1. But they are underdogs against an unranked Louisville team that is 4-0 on the year entering this contest. Here, I take a closer look at this important ACC matchup and you can continue reading to get my Virginia vs Louisville prediction.
Our Virginia vs Louisville Pick
- Pick: Louisville -7
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Virginia Cavaliers vs Louisville Cardinals
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDT
- Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
- Virginia’s Momentum: The Cavaliers are coming off a dramatic 46-38 double-overtime victory over Florida State, propelling them into the AP Top 25 rankings. Quarterback Chandler Morris delivered a standout performance, accounting for five touchdowns, including a game-winning rushing touchdown in overtime.
- Louisville’s Defensive Strength: The Cardinals have the 15th-ranked passing defense in the nation, which will be tested against Virginia’s potent aerial attack. Louisville’s defense has been a key factor in their undefeated start to the season. They did a great job on defense against Pitt’s passing attack last week.
- Quarterback Duel: Chandler Morris leads Virginia’s offense with impressive dual-threat capabilities, while Louisville’s Miller Moss will need to step up to match the Cavaliers’ offensive firepower.
Quarterback Play
Virginia – Chandler Morris: Morris has been exceptional this season, showcasing his ability to make plays both in the air and on the ground. His performance against Florida State highlighted his poise and playmaking ability under pressure. He has 1,279 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions on the season.
Louisville – Miller Moss: Louisville’s Miller Moss has thrown for 1,029 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions. His touchdown numbers haven’t been spectacular, but he’s been effective enough to help his team to an unbeaten start.
Betting Trends
- Virginia: The Cavaliers are an impressive 4-1 against the spread on the season. They are 4-0-1 on over/unders for the season thus far.
- Louisville: The Cardinals are 1-3 against the spread this season despite being 4-0 straight up. They have had three of their first four games go over their totals.
Virginia vs Louisville Model Projection
Score Projection: Louisville 37 – Virginia 27
Win Probability: Louisville 72.6%, Virginia 27.4%
Final Thoughts
I am expecting Louisville to remain undefeated by getting a win at home over Virginia on Saturday. The Cardinals proved last week that they can slow down potent passing attacks from their opposition. And with the Cards being at home here, they should be able to rely on their crowd to help further disrupt Chandler Morris and the Cavaliers. Virginia should drop to 0-2 on the road for the season with a loss by over a touchdown here.
