The Penn State Nittany Lions will visit the UCLA Bruins in Big Ten play on Saturday afternoon. The Nittany Lions failed an important test at home last week against the Oregon Ducks. They will try to rebound against a UCLA team that is winless on the season and hoping that a coaching change will inject some life into them. Here, I break down this Big Ten game and give you my Penn State vs UCLA prediction.
Our Penn State vs UCLA Pick
- Pick: Penn State -24.5
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Penn State Nittany Lions vs UCLA Bruins
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- Can Penn State Respond?: Penn State took its first loss of the season last week, dropping their annual white out game against Oregon at home. The Nittany Lions’ offense struggled in that game and they will try to avoid a second straight loss in this game.
- Penn State’s Defensive Dominance: The Nittany Lions boast one of the nation’s top defenses, allowing just 11.8 points per game. Linebacker Amare Campbell leads the team with 37 tackles, and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton has contributed 2 sacks.
- UCLA’s Offensive Struggles: The Bruins have yet to win a game this season and average only 14.3 points per game. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has thrown for 788 yards but has been under pressure frequently and hasn’t been dangerous at all. UCLA’s struggles on offense helped prompt the firing of head coach Deshaun Foster.
Quarterback Play
- Drew Allar (Penn State): The sophomore quarterback has thrown for 763 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions. His performance against Oregon was a disappointment and he will try to get back on track in this contest.
- Nico Iamaleava (UCLA): The transfer from Tennessee has accumulated 788 passing yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. He has talent, but has yet to play at the level we saw from him at Tennessee a season ago.
Betting Trends
- Penn State: Penn State is 0-4 against the spread for the season. They have seen three of their first four games go over their totals.
- UCLA: UCLA is 1-3 against the spread for the season. They have also had three of their first four games go under their totals.
Penn State vs UCLA Model Projection
- Score Projection: Penn State 31 – UCLA 10
- Win Probability: Penn State 93%, UCLA 7%
Final Thoughts
I don’t think that this year’s Penn State team is nearly impressive as the rankings throughout this season would lead you to believe. But I do think that the Nittany Lions will bounce back from their loss to Oregon in convincing fashion this weekend. My best bet for this contest is for Penn State to cover the spread as a big favorite, as their defense should shut down a UCLA offense that has not figured things out just yet.
