Air Force and Navy will play in college football on Saturday. This is the first game that will have a hand in deciding who wins this year’s Commander In Chief’s Trophy. Navy is off to a 4-0 start and their offense has been electric to start the year. Can Air Force upset them? Continue reading to get my Air Force vs Navy prediction for all-service academy matchup.
Our Air Force vs Navy Pick
- Pick: Navy -12.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Air Force Falcons vs Navy Midshipmen
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: Navy–Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
- Broadcast: CBS
Air Force vs Navy Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Navy –12.5 | Navy –450 / AFA +340 | 52.5 |
Key Storylines
- Navy’s momentum: The Midshipmen enter this game at 4-0. They rely on a run-oriented offense that racked up 283 rushing yards and leaned on Blake Horvath’s dual-threat ability in their recent win over Rice. They’ve shown consistency in the red zone and in converting short yardage situations.
- Air Force’s identity: The Falcons have had slow start to their season at 1-3. They rely on the disciplined, option-focused service academy style of football. But Navy has more knowledge of that kind of football than any opponent that Air Force will face.
- Higher stakes: This is not only a rivalry game but a meaningful one in the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy race. Both teams will feel pressure to assert dominance in this battle of two service academies.
Quarterback Play
Navy’s Blake Horvath remains the most dangerous piece of their offense. He’s shown the capacity to lead both the ground and aerial attacks for Navy. When the option is working, he is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.
Air Force is likely to feature option QB Liam Szarka to run their offense. Szarka leads the Falcons in both passing and rushing yards. He has attempted just 46 pass attempts through four games and will try to lead the Air Force ground game to pull an upset over their rivals.
Betting Trends
- Navy is 2-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Air Force is 1-3 both straight up and against the spread to this point in the year.
- Navy has gone over the total in three of their first four games.
- Air Force has had all four of their games this season go over their totals.
Air Force vs Navy Model Projection
Score Projection: Navy 35 – Air Force 21
Win Probability: Navy 65%, Air Force 35%
Final Thoughts
Both of these teams are going to try to dominate the opposing defense with their running game. But Navy is better both on the ground and through the air going into this game. I recommend betting on the Midshipmen to win this game and cover the spread as a home favorite. They should put up enough points to win this game by at least two touchdowns and move to within one victory of the Commander In Chief’s Trophy.
