Boise State and Notre Dame will lock horns in college football on Saturday afternoon. Notre Dame has responded to an 0-2 start with two straight victories, while Boise State has won three games in a row after dropping their opener. The Fighting Irish are huge favorites here and will try to move up in the top 25 with a win here. Continue reading to get my Boise State vs Notre Dame prediction for Saturday’s game.
Our Boise State vs Notre Dame Pick
- Pick: Boise State +20.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boise State Broncos vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
- Broadcast: NBC
Boise State vs Notre Dame Odds
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Notre Dame -20.5 |
| Moneyline | Boise State +750, Notre Dame -1400 |
| Total | Over/Under 63.5 |
Key Storylines
Boise State’s Resilience: The Broncos have shown resilience this season, winning three straight games after an early loss to South Florida. Their offense is led by quarterback Maddux Madsen and running back Dylan Riley. The Broncos are averaging 485 yards per game. But they face a significant challenge against a Notre Dame team that played its best defensive game of the season last week.
Notre Dame’s Offensive Firepower: The Fighting Irish have a potent offense. They are averaging 40 points per game and have scored 56 points in back-to-back games. Quarterback CJ Carr has been efficient and running back Jeremiyah Love has five touchdowns in four games. Notre Dame’s ability to score quickly and in bunches could overwhelm Boise State’s defense.
Quarterback Play
Maddux Madsen has been solid for Boise State, throwing for over 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns this season. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed Miami and Texas A&M to score on them in bunches this season. Madsen will look to join that club in this matchup.
Notre Dame’s CJ Carr has been impressive, with over 1,000 passing yards and nine touchdowns. He has feasted on weaker power conference competition over the last couple of games and will try to prove himself against a College Football Playoff team from last season on Saturday.
Betting Trends
- Boise State is 3-1 against the spread this season.
- Notre Dame is 2-2 against the spread this season.
- The total has gone over in 3 of Boise State’s first four games.
- The total has gone over in each of Notre Dame’s first four games.
Boise State vs Notre Dame Model Projection
Score Projection: Boise State 21 – Notre Dame 38
Win Probability: Boise State 20%, Notre Dame 80%
Final Thoughts
I would expect for Notre Dame to win fairly convincingly at home in this contest. The Fighting Irish have started to turn things around after losing to a pair of elite teams to start the year. With that said, I do think that Boise State will cover the huge point spread here. Madsen is an underrated passer and the Notre Dame defense has not proven itself against quality competition just yet. I’ll take the points with the Broncos, though Notre Dame will win by two possessions or so.
