The New Mexico Lobos and San Jose State Spartans will tangle in Mountain West Conference action on Friday night. This is the first Mountain West game of the season for these teams, who will look to avoid a loss that would force them to play catch-up in the league standings going forward. Before kickoff from California, you can find my analysis for this game below, including my New Mexico vs San Jose State prediction.
Our New Mexico vs San José State Pick
- Pick: Over 57.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New Mexico Lobos vs San José State Spartans
- Date & Time: Friday, October 3, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: CEFCU Stadium, San José, CA
- Broadcast: FS1
New Mexico vs San Jose State Odds
| Type | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | SJSU -2.5 |
| Moneyline | SJSU -130 / UNM +110 |
| Total (Over/Under) | 57.5 |
Key Storylines
Offensive Outlook: New Mexico has shown explosiveness on offense. They have scored over 30 points in three straight games and held their own against the Michigan Wolverines on the road. San José State’s offense has had its bright spots but has also struggled mightily at times. The Lobos’ ability to get chunk plays will test an SJSU defense that has allowed big plays in some of their losses.
Series Dominance: San José State has historically had the edge in this pairing. They are 6–1 in their last seven meetings against New Mexico. But New Mexico comes into this game playing better football and we could see the Lobos get a win over this opponent that has tormented them in recent meetings.
Quarterback Play
New Mexico’s passing game has not been spectacular, but they have made big plays when needed. Their leading passer is Jack Layne. Layne has averaged just over 200 yards per game through the air with seven touchdown passes and three interceptions. Three of his touchdown passes have gone to tight end Dorian Thomas.
San José State’s quarterback is Walker Eget. Eget has been a bright spot during a difficult start to the Spartans’ season. In their most recent game against Stanford, he totaled 473 passing yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions on 36/58 passing. Wide receiver Danny Scudero is Eget’s top weapon, with Scudero already having 33 catches for 514 yards.
Betting Trends & H2H
San José State trends:
- San Jose State is 2-2 against the spread going into this game.
- The Spartans are also 2-2 on their over/unders.
New Mexico trends:
- New Mexico is 3-1 against the spread so far this season.
- The Lobos are 2-2 on their totals for the year.
Head-to-head/series history: SJSU leads the all-time series 15-5-1 over New Mexico. The Lobos last beat the Spartans in 2016.
New Mexico vs San José State Model Projection
Score Projection: New Mexico 35 – San José State 28
Win Probability: New Mexico 58%, San José State 42%
Final Thoughts
I think that San Jose State does have a decent shot at winning this game as a slight home favorite. But I like the over better than backing either team to get the win here. The passing game of San Jose State is good enough to put up plenty of points, whether or not their defense can get stops against a solid New Mexico team. We should see this game reach the 60s on the scoreboard.
