Game 3 of the National League Wild Card series between the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs will take place on Thursday. The Padres rolled to a 3–0 shutout in Game 2 to even the series after dropping Game 1 on Tuesday. The winner of this contest will advance to the NLDS and the loser is going home. Which team will move on? Continue reading to get my Padres vs Cubs Game 3 prediction.
Our Padres vs Cubs Game 3 Pick
- Pick: Over 7.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs
- Date & Time: Thursday, October 2
- Starting Pitchers: Yu Darvish (SD) vs Jameson Taillon (CHC)
- Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: ABC or ESPN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Yu Darvish will take the mound for San Diego. He posted a 5–5 record with a 5.38 ERA over 15 starts this season. Darvish struggled for a stretch and missed the early part of the season, but his arm is healthy now, and he will look to deliver a huge win against his former club.
Chicago will go with Jameson Taillon, who went 11–7 with a 3.68 ERA this season. Taillon has the steadier numbers and should be able to give Chicago enough innings to get things to the bullpen late. He had a 1.54 ERA in four September starts and he will look to deliver in the biggest start of his career here.
Key Players
- Manny Machado (SD): Machado hit a two-run homer in Game 2 to give the Padres some insurance runs to help even this series at a game apiece.
- Pete Crow Armstrong (CHC): PCA has gone hitless in the first two games of this series and he will need to be better if the Cubs are going to get a win in this contest.
Best Player Props
| Player | Stat Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Jameson Taillon | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | Under 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- These teams are 4-4 against each other between the regular season and postseason.
- Chicago is 51-32 at home after losing Game 2 at Wrigley Field.
- San Diego is 39-44 in their road games including the playoffs.
- Both games in this series so far have gone under their totals. There have been seven total runs scored in this series through two games.
Padres vs Cubs Game 3 Model Projection
Score Projection: Padres 4 – Cubs 5
Win Probability: Padres 44%, Cubs 56%
Final Thoughts
The Cubs are slight favorites at home going into this game. But I’m not particularly interested in backing either team to win this contest given how much is on the line and how little I trust either starting pitcher. Instead, I think that the over is the best bet for this contest. Unders in the Wild Card round have been very profitable, including in this series. But I think the step down in level of starting pitching in this game will allow both offenses to get things going with a spot in the NLDS on the line.
