Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Game 1 Prediction – 10/3/2025

The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces will face off in Game 1 of the 2025 WNBA Finals on Friday night. These Western Conference teams took care of business in highly competitive semifinal series to make it to the first-ever best-of-seven WNBA Finals series. Before tip-off from Las Vegas, continue reading to get my breakdown of this game, including my Mercury vs Aces Game 1 prediction.

Our Mercury vs Aces Game 1 Pick

• Pick: Phoenix Mercury +4.5
• Confidence: 3/5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces
• Date & Time: October 3, 2025, 8:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Broadcast: ESPN

Mercury vs Aces Game 1 Odds

Key Storylines

• The Aces needed overtime to win their winner-take-all Game 5 in the semifinals against the Indiana Fever. That game was close despite Caitlin Clark being out, Aliyah Boston fouling out, and Kelsey Mitchell leaving due to injury for Indiana. Las Vegas won’t have much time to regroup before the start of the Finals.
• Phoenix proved to be too much in the fourth quarter of Game 4 of their semifinal series against the Minnesota Lynx. The Mercury took advantage of the absence of Napheesa Collier in that deciding game and the Mercury will have to deal with a healthy A’ja Wilson in this series.
• The focus of this series will be on the frontcourt battle between A’ja Wilson of the Aces and the Phoenix duo of Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally. But the guards could end up deciding this series. Las Vegas got big shots out of Jewell Loyd, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young in Game 5 against the Fever. They will be key for the Aces, while Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury backcourt into battle.

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

• The Aces went 3-1 against the Mercury in their four regular-season games.
• Three of the four games between these teams this season were decided by six points or less.
• Phoenix is 5-2 against the spread in the WNBA playoffs.
• Las Vegas is 4-4 against the spread in the postseason.

Advanced Metrics & Trends

• The Aces have the number one offensive rating in the 2025 WNBA Playoffs.
• Phoenix is fifth in the playoffs in offensive rating going into the WNBA Finals.
• Phoenix is number one in defensive rating in the playoffs so far.
• The Aces are sixth among playoff teams in defensive rating.
• Both of these teams are top-five of the eight playoff teams in pace during postseason play.

Mercury vs Aces Game 1 Model Projection

Score Projection: Phoenix 82 – Las Vegas 84
Win Probability: Phoenix 40%, Las Vegas 60%

Final Thoughts

I think we are going to see another very close game between the Mercury and Aces to start the WNBA Finals. These teams played three close games in their four meetings during the regular season. Phoenix’s rest advantage going into this series will help them keep Game 1 incredibly close. Either team could win this one outright and I’ll take the points with the underdog.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.