Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets Prediction – 10/5/2025

The Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets will face off in a Week 5 matchup in the NFL on Sunday. The Jets are coming off a Monday Night Football loss to the Miami Dolphins, while the Cowboys had a memorable tie against the Green Bay Packers in Week 4. Both teams will try to get back into the win column here. Before kickoff from the Meadowlands, you can get my breakdown of this game below, including my Cowboys vs Jets prediction.

Our Cowboys vs Jets Pick

• Pick: Over 46.5
• Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets
• Date & Time: Sunday, October 5, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
• Broadcast: FOX

Cowboys vs Jets Odds

Key Storylines

Cowboys injury concerns: Dallas is dealing with the loss of star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who suffered a high ankle sprain expected to sideline him for multiple weeks. The Cowboys have promoted Jalen Cropper and will lean more heavily on George Pickens and tight end Jacob Ferguson. The absence of Lamb didn’t hurt the Cowboys in Week 4, as they put up 40 points against the Packers.

Cowboys defensive issues: Dallas’ defense has struggled early in the season. Dallas has allowed big passing games, thanks in part to losing Micah Parsons and the consistent pressure he used to provide. Opposing quarterbacks are finding favorable matchups against the Dallas secondary and the Jets will try to join that club this week.

Desperation for the Jets: New York enters this game at 0–4. They have struggled with turnover problems, penalties, and inconsistency. Quarterback Justin Fields played in Week 4 after being questionable with a concussion. Fields’ mobility was a plus for the Jets in their loss to the Dolphins in Week 4, but he still needs to do more through the air for the Jets to get into the win column.

Short prep week for New York: The Jets had to play on Monday Night Football against the Dolphins in Week 4. That will mean less time than usual to recover and get ready to play in this game, which is the last thing an 0-4 team needs.

Quarterback Play

Dak Prescott will need to manage the injury adjustments in his receiving corps again this week. If Prescott holds onto the ball too long or misses on timing plays, Dallas’s offense could struggle. But if he can do what he did against the Packers in Week 4, the Cowboys could get their first win since Week 2 against the Giants.

Justin Fields has completed nearly two-thirds of his pass attempts so far this season. But he has not produced enough through the air to make the Jets a consistent threat offensively. Fields will need to make plays with both his arm and his legs if the Jets are going to avoid an 0-5 start to the season.

Betting Trends

• Both teams are 2-2 against the spread so far this season.
• Jets games are 3-1 to the over going into Week 5.
• The Cowboys are 2-2 in the over/under market heading into this contest.
• Dallas is 0-2 on the road for the year.
• The Jets are 0-2 in their home games this season.

Cowboys vs Jets Model Projection

Score Projection: Cowboys 28 – Jets 21

Win Probability: Cowboys 60%, Jets 40%

Final Thoughts

My best bet for this matchup is for the over to hit at MetLife Stadium. Both defenses have been struggling heading into this week and I think that will continue here. As long as the Jets can score two or three touchdowns, we should see this contest clear the total.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.