The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs will face off in Game 1 of their National League Wild Card series at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. The Cubs claimed the top Wild Card spot and home-field advantage in this best-of-three series. They will look to get off to a strong start to their postseason in this matchup. Before first pitch from Chicago, continue reading to get my Cubs vs Padres Game 1 prediction.
Our Padres vs Cubs Game 1 Pick
- Pick: Cubs moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 30, 2025, 3:08 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Padres: Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.87 ERA)
- Cubs: Matthew Boyd (14-8, 3.21 ERA)
- Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: ABC
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Nick Pivetta, the Padres’ likely Game 1 starter, enjoyed an excellent season overall. He went 13-5 and had a 2.87 ERA. But his splits are a concern coming into the postseason. On the road in 2025, he posted a an ERA of 3.55, versus an elite home ERA of 2.36. He’s outperformed his expected metrics this year but is a better pitcher at home than on the road.
Matthew Boyd has been a dependable workhorse for the Cubs. He enters with a 14-8 record, a 3.21 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. He’s also been particularly strong in starts at Wrigley, posting a 2.51 home ERA and a 3.90 ERA on the road.
Recent team streaks
Both teams are on three-game winning streaks heading into the postseason. The Cubs closed strong with a sweep of the Cardinals, including a game in which Seiya Suzuki launched a grand slam, helping them clinch the No. 1 Wild Card spot. The Padres swept the Arizona Diamondbacks in their final series of the regular season.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta | Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
| Matthew Boyd | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Seiya Suzuki | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
Betting Trends & H2H
- These teams split their regular-season matchups 3-3 this season.
- Home teams went 4-2 in games played between the Cubs and Padres in 2025.
- San Diego went 38-43 on the road this season.
- Chicago went 50-31 at home on the year.
Padres vs Cubs Game 1 Model Projection
Score Projection: Cubs 4 – Padres 2
Win Probability: Cubs 55%, Padres 45%
Final Thoughts
This Game 1 feels like a prime spot to back Chicago. Boyd’s home numbers and Pivetta’s road splits should give the Cubs the pitching edge in this contest. Chicago should take the lead in the early stages and hold onto it down the stretch. I’ll go with the Cubs to win a low-scoring series opener that will give them two chances to advance to the NLDS if they need it.
