Liberty will travel to Norfolk this Saturday to take on Old Dominion in a non-conference college football matchup. The Flames enter at 1–3, trying to end a three-game losing streak. The Monarchs are 2–1 after a statement win over Virginia Tech. The spread heavily favors the home side, but can Liberty offer any resistance? Here, I break down this contest and give you my Liberty vs Old Dominion prediction for Saturday’s game.
Our Liberty vs Old Dominion Pick
- Pick: Old Dominion –15.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Liberty Flames vs Old Dominion Monarchs
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 6:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Kornblau Field at S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, VA
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Liberty vs Old Dominion Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| ODU –15.5 | ODU –750 / Liberty +475 | 53.5 |
Key Storylines
- Recent momentum: ODU is coming off a bye and riding the confidence of dismantling Virginia Tech on the road in their last game. The Monarchs are 2-1 and they have a chance to get a third straight win before conference play here. Liberty is out of sync, failing to win in any of their three games against FBS competition so far this year.
- Disparity in turnovers and red zone: Liberty ranks 109th in turnover margin (−3) while ODU is 39th in the FBS with a +2 margin. In the red zone, Liberty’s offense is middling with a 70% conversion rate, while ODU’s defense ranks top 10, allowing a 61.5% touchdown rate.
- Discipline & penalties: ODU ranks poorly in penalty yards per game at 74.7 penalty yards per game. Liberty is at 40.8 yards per game and will try to use their superior discipline to keep them in this contest.
Quarterback Play
Old Dominion’s Colton Joseph has been a dual threat for his team. In the win over Virginia Tech, he passed for 276 yards and two touchdowns. He also added a rushing score, helping ODU pile up over 500 total yards. He leads the Monarchs in both passing yards and rushing yards this year.
Liberty’s offense has been more modest. Their passing game struggles to generate explosive plays, and turnovers have been a concern. Quarterback Ethan Vasko has averaged under 200 passing yards per game through four games. The Flames need to generate more through the air to win a game like this one.
Betting Trends & H2H
ATS trends: ODU is 3–0 ATS so far this season. Liberty is 0–4 ATS.
Home/Road splits: ODU is 1-0 at home so far this season. They beat FCS NC Central 54-6 in their only home game of the season. Liberty is 0-2 on the road, losing by double-digits to Jacksonville State and Bowling Green away from home.
Over/Under tendencies: The total has gone over in two of ODU’s first three games. Liberty’s games have gone under their totals three times in four games.
Liberty vs Old Dominion Model Projection
Score Projection: Liberty 17 – ODU 38
Win Probability: Liberty 14%, ODU 86%
Final Thoughts
I am expecting another lopsided victory for Old Dominion against Liberty this weekend. The Monarchs are delivering on both sides of the ball and even kept things respectable against the explosive Indiana Hoosiers. I’ll lay the points with Old Dominion as they should improve to 3-1 before getting into Sun Belt Conference play.
