Tennessee vs Mississippi State Pick & Prediction – 9/27/2025

The Tennessee Volunteers and Mississippi State Bulldogs will face off in SEC play in Starkville on Saturday. Tennessee enters this game at 3-1 and 0-1 in the SEC. Mississippi State is 4-0 and set to play their first conference game of the 2025 season. Before this game begins in SEC country, continue reading to get my breakdown of this contest, including my Tennessee vs Mississippi State prediction.

Our Tennessee vs Mississippi State Pick

• Pick: Tennessee -7
• Confidence: 4/5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Tennessee Volunteers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
• Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 4:15 p.m. EDT
• Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
• Broadcast: SEC Network

Tennessee vs Mississippi State Odds

Key Storylines

• Quarterback Play: Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar has been efficient, throwing for 1,124 yards, 12 touchdowns, and three interceptions. He has adjusted nicely to life in the SEC and even had four touchdown passes against Georgia in their conference opener. Mississippi State’s Blake Shapen has 882 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. Both quarterbacks will be huge to their teams’ success.
• Injuries: Tennessee’s secondary faces challenges with key injuries, including the loss of Rickey Gibson. Mississippi State’s offense will look to exploit this vulnerability.
• Mississippi State’s Undefeated Record: The Bulldogs are 4-0, with wins over ranked Arizona State and Northern Illinois. This game marks their first SEC test and it will be interesting to see if the Bulldogs can prove that they are for real.
• Tennessee Hits the Road: This is the first road game of the season for Tennessee. They went 3-1 at home to begin the season. We could see some regression from the Tennessee offense in a hostile environment here. We could also see Tennessee prove that hitting the road isn’t a problem for them.

Betting Trends & H2H

• Tennessee is 3-1 against the spread this season.
• Mississippi State is 4-0 ATS to begin the year.
• Tennessee has seen each of their first four games go over their totals.
• Mississippi State has had three of their first four games go under their totals.
• Tennessee is 30-16-1 all-time against Mississippi State.

Tennessee vs Mississippi State Model Projection

• Score Projection: Tennessee 38 – Mississippi State 28
• Win Probability: Tennessee 70%, Mississippi State 30%

Final Thoughts

While Mississippi State’s undefeated record is impressive, they have not played against SEC-level competition yet this year. This conference opener should shed light on the fact that the Bulldogs are not quite as good as they looked through the first month of their 2025 campaign. I’ll lay the points with Tennessee here, as they should continue to move the ball effectively through the air to get to 4-1 on the season.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.