Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara Prediction – 9/27/2025

Loma Lookboonmee and Alexia Thainara will face off in the first fight of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night card in Perth. Thainara is a heavy favorite in this matchup from Australia and she will look to stay undefeated in UFC. Can she get the job done, or will Lookboonmee get her fifth straight win in the promotion instead? Here, I take a closer look at this women’s strawweight fight and give you my Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara prediction for Saturday night.

Our Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara Pick

• Pick: Alexia Thainara to win by decision
• Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Tale of the Tape

Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara Preview

Loma Lookboonmee is a Muay Thai specialist from Thailand and has used her striking to pile up victories in UFC. Her recent unanimous decision wins against Bruna Brasil and Istela Nunes showcased her striking and clinch work. She has won four fights in a row and she will look to shake things up in this division with another victory. Lookboonmee’s ability to control the pace and dictate distance will be crucial against Thainara.

Alexia Thainara is a Brazilian fighter with a strong grappling background. She has an impressive 12-1 record and got a win in her UFC debut in March. She defeated Molly McCann via submission in that fight. Thainara can do damage both with her striking and her grappling skills. She comes into this fight with more paths to victory than Lookboonmee in this matchup.

Betting Insights

• Moneyline odds: Thainara -238, Lookboonmee +195
• Fight duration: Over 2.5 rounds -280, Under 2.5 rounds +210
• Nine of Thainara’s 13 career MMA fights have ended inside the distance. That includes eight of her 12 career victories.
• Eight of Lookboonmee’s 10 career wins have come by decision.

Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara Prediction

Thainara’s reach advantage and grappling skills will provide her with the tools to control this fight. While Lookboonmee’s striking is sharp, her defensive metrics are concerning and she will struggle with the myriad of ways that Thainara can hurt her. Thainara’s ability to absorb strikes and her grappling prowess give her the edge. The betting odds reflect this, with Thainara favored to win by decision.

My best bet for this fight is for Thainara to get that decision win. Lookboonmee should do a good enough job of avoiding a loss via stoppage. But it will be the Brazilian that stays undefeated in UFC as she should control this Fight Night opener from start to finish.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.