The New York Mets will head into loanDepot Park to take on the Miami Marlins on Friday night. This is the first game of a very important three-game series for New York, as they look to hold onto the final Wild Card spot in the National League. New York is favored on the road here but will need to overcome a starting pitcher with a high ceiling for Miami. Continue reading to get my thoughts on this game, including my Mets vs Marlins prediction for Friday night.
Our Mets vs Marlins Pick
- Pick: Marlins moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins
- Date & Time: Friday, September 26, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Brandon Sproat (Mets) vs Sandy Alcántara (Marlins)
- Stadium: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
- Broadcast: FDSFL and WPIX
Key Storylines
This game carries immense weight for New York. Their postseason hopes hinge on each win in this final series. After a gutsy 8–5 victory over the Cubs, the Mets have not surrendered their grip on the final NL Wild Card spot. They lead the Cincinnati Reds by one game in the race for that playoff berth. Miami’s season is over, but the club is still playing for pride and to potentially play spoiler against their division rivals here.
Pitching matchup
The Mets will hand the ball to Brandon Sproat, a relatively untested arm. He is 0–1 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 16.0 innings pitched. He is chasing his first major league win, and command will be key. On the Marlins’ side is Sandy Alcántara. Alcantara enters with a 10–12 record and 5.48 ERA across 167.2 innings. His strikeout totals are lower than he used to put up. But Alcantara can finish this season strong with a good start against the Mets tonight.
Recent team streaks
The Mets have been in “do or die” mode all September long and just came off a series win over the Cubs to preserve their Wild Card lead. New York has won two of its last three games. The Marlins have lost two games in a row to the Philadelphia Phillies entering this game. Miami will try to avoid a third straight loss at the hands of a division rival tonight.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
| Pete Alonso | Total bases | Under 1.5 |
| Sandy Alcántara | Strikeouts | Under 5.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The season series between the Mets and Marlins is tied 5-5 entering tonight’s game.
- The Marlins have won their last two meetings with the Mets before this series opener.
- Three of the last four games between these teams have gone over their totals.
Mets vs Marlins Model Projection
Score Projection: Mets 4 – Marlins 5
Win Probability: Marlins 54%, Mets 46%
Final Thoughts
The Mets are favored and their need to win the rest of their games is a big reason for that designation. But New York is sending a pitcher to the mound who has yet to record a major league win. I think there is some value on the home underdog in this division matchup and I will take the Marlins to grab a win that will send the Mets out of Wild Card position if the Reds win tonight.
