The Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers will square off on Friday to open a three-game series that is important for both teams. These teams enter the final series of the regular season in second and third place in the American League Wild Card standings. They will look to improve their Wild Card positioning, while the Tigers also have their eyes set on the AL Central title. Before the action begins from Boston, continue reading to get my Tigers vs Red Sox prediction for tonight.
Our Red Sox vs Tigers Pick
- Pick: Boston Red Sox ML
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox
- Date & Time: Friday, September 26, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison (BOS) vs. Casey Mize (DET)
- Stadium: Fenway Park (Boston, MA)
- Broadcast: Apple TV+
Key Storylines
Boston is coming off a series win over Toronto and recently got a gem from Garrett Crochet in his last start to help them win that series. Detroit, meanwhile, snapped an eight-game losing streak on Thursday in a bullpen game. But Detroit remains mired in inconsistency and pressure as its playoff hopes hang in the balance this weekend. Both teams are barely ahead of the Houston Astros in the Wild Card standings and either team losing this series would leave them vulnerable to being caught by the Astros.
Pitching matchup
Boston will roll out Kyle Harrison for this contest. The 24-year-old lefty is making his fifth start with the club this season. He’s posted a 3.58 ERA over 32.2 innings, with 32 strikeouts and a 1.19 WHIP. Harrison’s metrics suggest solid control and strikeout ability and he will try to shut down the Tigers tonight.
Detroit will go with Casey Mize on the mound. Mize has been reliable this season with a 14–6 record and a 3.91 ERA. He carries a projection of 4.85 strikeouts per outing and oddsmakers expect about 4.5 strikeouts from him. Mize offers more experience, but he’s vulnerable to Fenway’s hitter-friendly environment and Boston’s aggressive offense.
Recent team streaks
Boston took two out of three games against the Toronto Blue Jays in their last series. The Tigers snapped a long losing streak in their last game by beating the Cleveland Guardians.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize | Strikeouts | Under 5.5 |
| Riley Greene | Total Bases | Under 1.5 |
| Trevor Story | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Detroit leads the regular-season series 3-0 over the Red Sox entering this matchup.
- The over cashed in all three games these teams played in Detroit earlier this year.
- Boston is 46-32 at home this season.
- Detroit is 40-38 on the road in 2025.
Tigers vs Red Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: Boston 4 – Detroit 3
Win Probability: Boston 56%, Detroit 44%
Final Thoughts
Boston’s deeper lineup, home-field advantage, and bullpen strength give it the upper hand in what figures to be a tight game. Mize can keep Detroit in it, but the Red Sox should muster enough offense to get the win at Fenway. I’ll go with Boston to take this one and to keep the pressure on the Tigers heading into the final two games of the regular season.
