The Arkansas State Red Wolves and UL Monroe Warhawks will face off in Sun Belt Conference play on Saturday afternoon. Both teams are making their debut in Sun Belt play for this season in this contest. They will both look for a 1-0 start in league play before their conference schedule gets a lot tougher in the near future. Before kickoff from Louisiana, continue reading to get my Arkansas State vs UL Monroe prediction in college football.
Our Arkansas State vs UL Monroe Pick
- Pick: Arkansas State Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs UL Monroe Warhawks
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 3:00 PM EDT
- Venue: JPS Field at James L. Malone Stadium, Monroe, LA
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Arkansas State vs UL Monroe Odds
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe -1.5 |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe -120, Arkansas State +100 |
| Total | 53.5 |
Key Storylines
- UL Monroe’s Ground Game: UL Monroe has been effective on the ground, averaging 218 rushing yards per game, ranking 26th in the nation. This potent rushing attack could pose challenges for Arkansas State’s defense. A lot of that yardage came from their win over FCS St. Francis, though.
- Arkansas State’s Passing Attack: Arkansas State has moved the ball effectively through the air so far this season. Jaylen Raynor has performed well for the most part despite a tough non-conference schedule for the Red Wolves. The UL Monroe defense will aim to contain this passing threat.
Quarterback Play
- Jaylen Raynor (Arkansas State): Raynor has been a standout performer for Arkansas State. He is leading the team with 918 passing yards and six touchdowns. His ability to execute the passing game will be crucial for the Red Wolves’ success as they look for their first win over an FBS opponent so far this season.
- Aidan Armenta (UL Monroe): Armenta has contributed 259 passing yards and three touchdowns this season. The Warhawks prefer to move the ball on the ground but they will need to get a little more out of Armenta to win here.
Betting Trends & H2H
- UL Monroe is 1-2 against the spread to begin the season.
- Arkansas State is 2-2 ATS through their first four games.
- UL Monroe has had two of their first three games go over their totals.
- Arkansas State is 2-2 in over/unders to begin their 2025 campaign.
- Arkansas State is 32-14 all-time against UL Monroe heading into this meeting.
Arkansas State vs UL Monroe Model Projection
- Score Projection: Arkansas State 28 – UL Monroe 27
- Win Probability: Arkansas State 51%, UL Monroe 49%
Final Thoughts
Arkansas State is more well-rounded offensively and that should make a big difference in the outcome of this game. UL Monroe has an FBS win this season, something that Arkansas State does not have. But the Red Wolves’ schedule as a whole has been much tougher and they should come into this game battle-tested and able to win outright on the road in their Sun Belt opener.
